CHINA RAILWAY(601390) 天风证券·2025-03-30 07:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Railway Group (601390) with a target price not specified [6][17]. Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 8.20% year-on-year in 2024, with total revenue reaching CNY 1,157.44 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 27.89 billion, down 16.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a substantial backlog of contracts amounting to CNY 50,265.4 billion, approximately 4.3 times its 2024 revenue, which is expected to support future revenue growth and performance release [1]. - The report highlights the potential for the mineral resources segment to create a second growth curve for the company, alongside ongoing efforts in emerging businesses [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company’s revenue from various segments included CNY 992.9 billion from infrastructure construction, CNY 174 billion from design consulting, CNY 248 billion from equipment manufacturing, and CNY 483 billion from real estate development, reflecting declines across all segments [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 9.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 2.7%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is CNY 28.3 billion, CNY 28.9 billion, and CNY 29.5 billion respectively, indicating a downward revision from previous estimates [1][4]. - The company’s cash dividend ratio for 2024 is projected at 15.8%, with a corresponding dividend yield of 3.1% as of March 28 [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The report emphasizes the company’s role as a key player in infrastructure construction and the expected benefits from state-owned enterprise reforms aimed at improving operational efficiency and financial reporting quality [1][2]. - The emerging business segment, particularly in mineral resources, is highlighted as a significant area for future growth, with new orders in this segment increasing by 11.3% year-on-year [2].