StarPower(603290) Guoyuan Securities·2025-03-30 07:27Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a target price of 107 CNY per share for 2025, and an upward target price of 125 CNY per share [4][10][21]. Core Insights - The IGBT market is showing signs of marginal improvement, driven primarily by the demand from the electric vehicle sector. The IGBT shipment volume is expected to return to positive growth by Q2 2024, indicating the end of the industry downturn. The current IGBT prices are at a relative bottom, which is beneficial for the company's cost structure [1][10][23]. - The SiC (Silicon Carbide) market is experiencing a cost reduction, with significant capacity expansion in China. The price of SiC substrates has decreased by approximately 30% in 2024, and further declines are anticipated. The transition from 400V to 800V in mid-to-high-end vehicle platforms is expected to boost SiC demand [2][12][28]. - The company's fundraising projects are progressing well, transitioning to a Fabless + IDM model. The company raised 3.5 billion CNY for capacity expansion, with expected annual production capacities of 300,000 6-inch high-voltage chips and 60,000 6-inch SiC chips [3][13][40]. Summary by Sections Overall View - The company is expected to see a 30% revenue growth in 2025, driven by IGBT shipment recovery and market share expansion. The IGBT module prices are stabilizing, and the overall gross margin is projected to remain above 32% [20][54]. Current Price and Valuation Assessment - The report indicates a neutral target price of 107 CNY per share based on a 30x valuation for 2025, with an upward target of 125 CNY per share under favorable conditions [10][14][20]. Core Logic Changes - The IGBT sector is anticipated to experience overall marginal improvements, with signs of recovery in shipment volumes and price stabilization. The automotive electronics sector is a key growth area, particularly for electric vehicles [23][25][29]. Company Overview - Established in 2005, the company focuses on the design, production, and sales of power semiconductor chips and modules, primarily IGBT modules, SiC modules, and discrete devices, serving various industries including renewable energy and automotive [42][44]. Performance Breakdown and Valuation - The company is projected to generate revenues of 34.25 billion CNY in 2024, with a slight decline in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years. The IGBT business is expected to see a revenue increase of 28.2% in 2025, while the SiC business is projected to grow significantly [55][56].