Qinghai Salt Lake Industry (000792) 华创证券·2025-03-30 07:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.5 CNY, compared to the current price of 16.42 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by the decline in lithium and potassium prices, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit for 2024. The company achieved a total revenue of 15.134 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 29.86%, and a net profit of 4.663 billion CNY, down 41.07% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company is expected to launch a 40,000-ton lithium carbonate project by 2025, which is anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [1][5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the average prices for domestic potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were 2,518 CNY/ton and 90,900 CNY/ton, respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 15% and 65% [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 46.86 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 19.05% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 45.88% [1][5]. - The company’s investment income increased significantly to 300 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 277.77%, primarily due to interest income from large deposits [5]. Production and Future Outlook - The company maintained a stable potassium chloride production of approximately 5 million tons, accounting for about 35% of the domestic market share. In 2024, the production was 4.96 million tons, with sales of 4.6728 million tons [5]. - The company is currently working on a 40,000-ton integrated lithium carbonate project, which is 55% complete and expected to be operational by 2025, with a planned production of 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate [5][6]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.686 billion CNY, 6.258 billion CNY, and 6.484 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 21.9%, 10.1%, and 3.6% [6][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in revenue growth starting in 2025, with total revenues expected to reach 17.669 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [6].