华峰化学：四季度产品盈利承压，一季度氨纶回暖-20250330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue growth and profit recovery in the coming years [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 26.931 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.43% to 2.220 billion yuan [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 6.559 billion yuan, down 0.87% year-on-year, and a significant decline in net profit by 62.66% to 205 million yuan [1]. - The company is currently facing pressure on its performance due to declining product prices, particularly for spandex and adipic acid, leading to a low overall gross margin of 8.36% in Q4 [2]. - The company has a low debt level, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.17% in 2024, which is a decrease from the previous year [3]. - The company is investing in projects to enhance its integrated production capacity for spandex, which is expected to improve profitability in the future [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 26.931 billion yuan, a 2.41% increase year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.220 billion yuan, down 10.43% [1]. - The fourth quarter revenue was 6.559 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.87% year-on-year, with net profit dropping significantly by 62.66% to 205 million yuan [1]. Operational Analysis - The decline in product prices, especially for spandex and adipic acid, has put pressure on the company's performance, resulting in a gross margin of only 8.36% in Q4, down 32.7% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a spandex sales volume of 368,000 tons in 2024, up 12.29% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.66% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 has seen a slight recovery in spandex prices, while adipic acid prices continue to decline [2]. Profit Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025, expecting revenues of 27.322 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.984 billion yuan [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.40 yuan for 2025, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.33 for 2025, 18.56 for 2026, and 17.29 for 2027 [4].