创源股份（300703）：文教用品出口为基石，跨境电商和 IP 文创打开空间

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target market value of 3.4 billion yuan, indicating an upside potential of 25% based on a comparable company average PE of 25x for 2025 [8]. Core Insights - The company focuses on educational supplies exports, expanding into cross-border e-commerce and IP cultural and creative businesses, leveraging its strong R&D and supply chain management capabilities [7][17]. - The educational supplies export business is a stable growth foundation, with a projected revenue increase driven by product upgrades and market demand shifts [21]. - The company is expected to achieve significant growth in its domestic IP cultural and creative business, supported by partnerships and resource integration from Ningbo Cultural Tourism [45][49]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment for fitness equipment is experiencing rapid growth, capitalizing on the trend of home fitness in the U.S. market [7][21]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 1.36 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 2.18 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 22.3% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 77 million yuan in 2023 to 137 million yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 24.7% [6]. - The earnings per share are projected to rise from 0.42 yuan in 2023 to 0.76 yuan in 2025 [6]. Business Segments - The company operates primarily in three segments: educational supplies (64% of revenue), fitness equipment (22%), and lifestyle products (5%) [21]. - The educational supplies segment includes a diverse product matrix, while the fitness equipment segment is rapidly increasing its market share [21][18]. - The company has shifted towards a higher proportion of its own brands (OBM), which now account for 23% of revenue, up from 1% in 2015 [21]. Market Trends - The global educational supplies market is projected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2030, driven by product upgrades and changes in office environments [51]. - The domestic market for IP cultural and creative products is expected to expand significantly, influenced by consumer preferences for design and brand collaborations [10][45]. - The U.S. home fitness equipment market has seen substantial growth, with sales increasing from 2.2 billion USD in 2019 to 4.7 billion USD in 2021, indicating strong consumer demand [7][21].