深信服（300454）：深度受益AIinfra建设

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 134.69 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 7.52 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 197 million, down 0.49% year-on-year. However, in Q4 2024, revenue reached RMB 2.886 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.13%, and net profit was RMB 777 million, up 4.46% year-on-year. The operating cash flow for 2024 was RMB 812 million, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated demand for local deployment of DeepSeek and other large models in 2025, which is anticipated to drive growth in its cloud business [1]. - The company has solidified its leading position in the cybersecurity sector, launching advanced models that enhance threat detection accuracy. Despite current industry demand pressures, the company continues to invest in R&D to strengthen its product competitiveness [3]. - The company has achieved a record market share in the hyper-converged infrastructure (HCI) sector, benefiting from the local deployment trend of DeepSeek, with nearly 100,000 enterprise customers globally [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 61.47%, a decrease of 3.67 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising raw material costs. The cybersecurity business generated revenue of RMB 3.629 billion, down 6.75% year-on-year, while the cloud computing and IT infrastructure business saw revenue of RMB 3.384 billion, up 9.51% year-on-year [2]. - The company has improved its operational efficiency, with a workforce reduction of 11.86% to 7,410 employees, resulting in a revenue per employee of RMB 1.0148 million, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year [2]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is recognized as a leader in the cybersecurity field, with its XDR product rated as a leader by IDC MarketScape. It is also the first domestic cloud vendor to pass the testing for trusted infrastructure as a service [3]. - The hyper-converged infrastructure market share has reached new heights, with the company’s HCI software ranking first in the Chinese market as of Q3 2024 [4]. Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 8.742 billion, RMB 10.252 billion, and RMB 12.168 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 16.25%, 17.28%, and 18.69% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly, with estimates of RMB 341 million, RMB 443 million, and RMB 579 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5].