Flat(SH:601865) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-30 11:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with total revenue of 18.683 billion yuan, down 13.20% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.007 billion yuan, down 63.52% year-on-year [1][4]. - The photovoltaic glass industry is facing a temporary oversupply, leading to pressure on profitability in the short term. The company's photovoltaic glass sales volume decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, with revenue from this segment falling by 14.54% [2]. - A price increase in photovoltaic glass in March 2025 is expected to aid in profit recovery, driven by reduced supply and increased downstream demand [2]. - The company has a total production capacity of 19,400 tons per day, with plans to invest in new projects in Indonesia to meet global demand [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.371 billion, 23.619 billion, and 27.551 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 9.0%, 15.9%, and 16.6% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.079 billion yuan, down 27.67% year-on-year, and a net loss of 289 million yuan, a decline of 136.54% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the photovoltaic glass business was 15.64%, a decrease of 6.81 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Industry Context - The photovoltaic glass industry is currently experiencing a phase of oversupply, which has led to declining prices and profitability for many companies [2]. - The report highlights that many smaller companies are facing losses, prompting them to reduce production capacity [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover profitability as supply pressures ease, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.085 billion, 1.811 billion, and 2.771 billion yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share from 0.43 yuan in 2024 to 1.18 yuan by 2027 [4].