CRRC(601766) 东吴证券·2025-03-30 12:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 246.46 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.21%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.39 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.77% [2] - The railway equipment business is experiencing significant growth due to the recovery of railway fixed asset investment and increased bidding for new train sets and maintenance [5] - The company's gross profit margin is slightly declining, while the net profit margin is showing a slight improvement, indicating effective cost control [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Total revenue and net profit forecasts for the company from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 234.26 billion yuan, Net Profit 11.71 billion yuan - 2024A: Revenue 246.46 billion yuan, Net Profit 12.39 billion yuan - 2025E: Revenue 273.16 billion yuan, Net Profit 13.81 billion yuan - 2026E: Revenue 293.68 billion yuan, Net Profit 14.88 billion yuan - 2027E: Revenue 313.94 billion yuan, Net Profit 16.03 billion yuan [1][2] Business Segment Performance - The railway equipment business generated revenue of 110.46 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.50% year-on-year, while the urban rail business saw a revenue decline of 9.72% to 45.44 billion yuan [2] - New industries contributed 86.38 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 7.13%, and modern services generated 4.18 billion yuan, down 18.22% [2] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 27.13 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 84.27% year-on-year, indicating strong operational cash flow [4] - Contract liabilities and inventory have increased, with contract liabilities reaching 28.18 billion yuan, up 21.60% year-on-year, and inventory at 78.95 billion yuan, up 18.10% year-on-year [4] Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The recovery of railway fixed asset investment in China is expected to continue, with a completion amount of 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 11.26% year-on-year [5] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to slower policy implementation for the replacement of old diesel locomotives, with net profit estimates revised to 13.81 billion yuan and 14.88 billion yuan respectively [5]