GANFENG LITHIUM(SZ:002460) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-30 12:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, with total revenue of 18.91 billion yuan, down 42.7% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 2.07 billion yuan [1]. - The lithium salt segment showed steady growth in production and sales, with lithium salt production and sales both reaching 130,000 tons, up 24.9% and 27.4% year-on-year, respectively. However, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 64.6% to 90,000 yuan per ton, negatively impacting performance [2]. - The company is transitioning from a smelting leader to an integrated leader, with self-owned resources gradually coming online, which is expected to improve profitability in the lithium salt segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 18.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 42.7% year-on-year, and a net loss of 2.07 billion yuan, compared to a profit in the previous year. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 4.98 billion yuan, down 31.7% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.43 billion yuan [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 300 million yuan [1]. Lithium Salt Segment - The company produced 130,000 tons of lithium salt in 2024, an increase of 24.9% year-on-year, with sales also reaching 130,000 tons, up 27.4% year-on-year. However, the lithium salt gross margin fell to 10.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year due to declining prices [2]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2024 was 90,000 yuan, a significant drop of 64.6% year-on-year [2]. Fair Value Changes and Investment Income - The company reported a fair value change loss of 1.48 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to falling lithium prices and a decline in the stock price of Pilbara [3]. - Investment income dropped to 100 million yuan, down 3.21 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to losses from the Marion mine [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to enter a concentrated production phase for its self-owned resources, which will enhance the profitability of its lithium salt business. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 694 million yuan, 2.30 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 99, 30, and 20 times [4][5].