CHINA RAILWAY(601390) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-30 12:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Railway (601390) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is facing pressure on revenue and profit, with a planned mid-term dividend in 2025 to enhance shareholder returns [1] - The 2024 forecast shows a decline in net profit by 16.7% compared to the previous year, slightly below prior expectations [7] - The company aims to achieve a total revenue of approximately 1.13 trillion yuan in 2025, with new contract amounts projected at 2.80 trillion yuan [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,263,475 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.5% [6] - For 2024, total revenue is expected to decline to 1,160,311 million yuan, a decrease of 8.2% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 27,887 million yuan, down 16.7% year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.178 yuan per share for 2024, with a payout ratio of 15.79% [7] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 28.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.3 billion yuan from the previous year [7] Segment Performance - The infrastructure construction segment is projected to generate revenue of 992.9 billion yuan in 2024, down 8.71% year-on-year [7] - The design consulting segment is expected to achieve revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.59% [7] - The equipment manufacturing segment is forecasted to generate 24.8 billion yuan, down 9.36% [7] - The real estate development segment is projected to earn 48.3 billion yuan, a decline of 5.71% [7] Order Trends - New contracts signed in 2024 are expected to total 2.72 trillion yuan, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year [7] - The railway business is expected to see a slight increase in new contracts, with 319.4 billion yuan, up 0.3% [7] - Domestic new contracts are projected at 2.49 trillion yuan, down 14.0%, while overseas contracts are expected to rise to 220.9 billion yuan, up 10.6% [7] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with net profits expected to be 28.1 billion yuan, 28.9 billion yuan, and 29.5 billion yuan respectively [7] - The growth rates for these years are projected at 0.6%, 2.9%, and 2.2% respectively [7]