Seazen(SH:601155) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-30 12:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's mall revenue continues to grow rapidly, and its debt repayment pressure is gradually easing [8] - The company adheres to a "residential + commercial" dual-driven strategy, focusing on commercial real estate to create a quality growth benchmark [8] - The company is expected to achieve long-term and quality growth due to its excellent management capabilities and quality asset portfolio [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 119,174 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline to 88,999 million, a decrease of 25.3% [7][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted at 752 million, reflecting a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year [7][10] - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 19.1% in 2023 to 24.8% in 2025 [7] - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is estimated at 5,272 million, with a projected net profit of 848 million for 2025 [10] Mall Performance - The retail sales of the company's malls increased by 19% year-on-year, with rental management fees rising by 13% [8] - The company has 200 malls in hand, with a rental rate of 97.9%, which is an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The contribution of mall revenue and gross profit is continuously increasing, with mall revenue accounting for 14% and gross profit accounting for 48% in 2024 [8] Debt and Financial Health - The company's interest-bearing debt has decreased, and the repayment pressure is gradually easing, with a remaining credit bond exposure of 7.2 billion in USD [8] - As of the end of 2024, the company is in the yellow zone of the "three red lines" policy, with a net debt ratio of 53.0% [8] - The financing cost for the company is projected to be 5.92% in 2024, a decrease of 28 basis points from 2023 [8]