CHALCO(601600) 国信证券·2025-03-30 13:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Views - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase by 85% year-on-year in 2024, with revenue projected at 237.07 billion yuan, a 5.21% increase [1][10]. - The significant growth in net profit is primarily driven by rising prices of aluminum and alumina, with the average price of A00 aluminum increasing by 6.5% and alumina by 39.7% year-on-year [2][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.217 yuan per share, totaling approximately 3.72 billion yuan, which represents 30.02% of the projected net profit for 2024 [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 237.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.21%, and a net profit of 12.40 billion yuan, up 85.38% [1][10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw a revenue of 63.29 billion yuan, a 71.44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 153.13% increase [1][10]. - The company reported a significant increase in asset impairment losses, totaling 2.75 billion yuan in 2024, compared to 755 million yuan in 2023, due to the update of old equipment [2][11]. Production and Sales - The company’s production of primary aluminum (including alloys) increased by 12% year-on-year in 2024, with total alumina production reaching 21.18 million tons [3][24]. - The company’s alumina segment achieved a pre-tax profit of 11.69 billion yuan, while the primary aluminum segment reported a pre-tax profit of 8.97 billion yuan [3][24]. Future Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 269.71 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.77%, and net profit is expected to be 14.71 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.62% increase [4][25]. - The diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.86 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.9 [4][25].