Sinotruk Jinan Truck (000951) 海通证券·2025-03-30 13:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's resilience in operations is evident, with 2024 Q3 performance surpassing industry standards [7] - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to be 449.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [7] - The company is expected to maintain long-term growth momentum due to policies favoring the replacement of old heavy trucks and trends towards high-end and refined logistics operations [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 revenue: 42.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 46.0% - 2024 revenue: 44.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% - 2025 revenue forecast: 48.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [6][7] - Net Profit: - 2023 net profit: 1.08 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 405.5% - 2024 net profit: 1.48 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.0% - 2025 net profit forecast: 1.76 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18.6% [6][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024 EPS: 1.26 yuan - 2025 EPS forecast: 1.49 yuan [6][7] Business Segment Performance - Complete Vehicle Business: - 2024 sales volume reached 133,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, while the overall heavy truck market saw a decline of 1% [7] - Parts Business: - 2024 parts revenue: 8.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [7] - Axle Business: - 2024 axle revenue: 7.2 billion yuan, with a net profit of 770 million yuan, maintaining a profit margin of 10.8% [7] Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company at 23.90 to 26.89 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16-18 times for 2025 [7]