CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Soochow Securities·2025-03-30 14:05Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance for 2024 aligns with the forecast, with a narrowing decline in Hainan duty-free sales [8] - The company is expected to benefit from the gradual recovery of outbound tourism and the implementation of city duty-free store policies, despite current pressures on duty-free consumption [8] - The report anticipates a significant contribution from new city duty-free stores, with potential sales in the tens of billions [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 4.27 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [8] Sales and Market Position - The sales of duty-free goods accounted for 68% of total revenue, while taxable goods accounted for 30% in 2024 [8] - The company’s market share in Hainan increased by nearly 2 percentage points, despite a 29% year-on-year decline in total duty-free sales in the region [8] - The report highlights the potential for growth in city duty-free sales, particularly with new store openings in major cities [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 4.98 billion yuan, 5.76 billion yuan, and 6.69 billion yuan respectively [8] - The corresponding P/E ratios for these years are projected to be 26, 22, and 19 times [8] - The report indicates that the current valuation is at the lower end of the historical valuation range of 25-40 times [8]