Sichuan Express(SH:601107) Huachuang Securities·2025-03-30 14:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Sichuan Chengyu (601107), expecting a performance that will exceed the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][21]. Core Views - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations with a revenue of 10,362 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 22.91% to 1,459 million yuan [6][10]. - The cash dividend payout ratio is 60.79%, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.29 yuan, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 5.8% for A-shares [6][10]. - The company has shown significant improvement in its toll revenue, with a gross margin of nearly 60% and a total toll service revenue of 4,777 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.74% [6][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 10,362 million yuan, with a forecasted growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 4.2% in 2027 [2]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 1,459 million yuan in 2024 to 1,843 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8% [2]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The EPS is projected to increase from 0.48 yuan in 2024 to 0.60 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 10 to 8 [2][6]. Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a high dividend payout, with a target dividend ratio of 60% for the years 2023-2025, emphasizing its focus on shareholder returns [6][10]. Market Position - Sichuan Chengyu's toll revenue is a significant contributor to its overall income, accounting for 46.1% of total revenue in 2024, with a notable increase in toll revenue from several highways [6][10].