SF Holding(002352) 华创证券·2025-03-30 14:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Strong Buy" (maintained) [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.17 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a net profit margin of 3.6%. The outlook for the company's net profit margin is positive, indicating a sustained improvement [1][5]. - The target price is set at 56.3 RMB, with the current price at 42.04 RMB, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 34% [2][5]. - The company has shown resilience in its core express delivery demand, maintaining growth above GDP levels despite macroeconomic pressures. The transition from selling products to providing industry solutions is expected to enhance service penetration [5][10]. - The company has implemented operational changes that have reduced costs and improved efficiency, including a new operational model that has shortened the average distance for delivery personnel by 38% [5][10]. - The international business segment is anticipated to contribute positively to profits, with significant growth in air cargo throughput at Ezhou Airport [5][10]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 284.42 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The express logistics segment generated revenue of 205.8 billion RMB, up 7.7% [5][6]. - The company reported a quarterly net profit of 2.55 billion RMB in Q4 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [5][9]. - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of approximately 4.104 billion RMB for the year, with a payout ratio of 40% [5][10]. - The company’s operating data indicates a total express delivery volume of 13.26 billion pieces in 2024, an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 predict a net profit of 11.67 billion RMB, 13.70 billion RMB, and 15.60 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.75, and 3.13 RMB [6][11].