中国铁建（601186）：Q4单季利润降幅收窄，24年分红比率提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Railway Construction Corporation (601186) [1] Core Views - The company's net profit for 2024 is expected to decline by 14.87%, which aligns with expectations, while the non-recurring net profit is projected to decrease by 13.24% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.0 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a payout ratio of 20.6%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company aims to sign new contracts worth 3.06 trillion yuan in 2025, with projected revenue of 1.07 trillion yuan [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,137,993 million yuan, with a projected decrease to 1,067,171 million yuan in 2024, followed by a slight recovery to 1,092,294 million yuan in 2025 [5][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline from 26,097 million yuan in 2023 to 22,215 million yuan in 2024, and further to 21,412 million yuan in 2025 [5][8] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable around 10.1% from 2025 to 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted to be 7.6% in 2025 [5][8] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is reported at 77.3% for 2024, an increase of 2.39 percentage points from the previous year [6] Business Performance - The engineering contracting business generated revenue of 9,312 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 5.68% year-on-year, while the real estate segment saw a revenue drop of 13.67% to 719 million yuan [6] - The industrial manufacturing segment reported revenue of 234 million yuan, down 2.52%, while the planning and design consulting business generated 180 million yuan, a decrease of 3.89% [6] Cash Flow Analysis - The company reported a net operating cash flow of -314 million yuan for 2024, a decrease of 518 million yuan year-on-year [6] - The collection ratio decreased by 0.97 percentage points to 100.5%, while the payment ratio increased by 1.99 percentage points to 103.1% [6]