Weichai Power(000338) 华创证券·2025-03-30 15:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Weichai Power, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][8]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's 4Q24 earnings exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 537 billion yuan, maintaining a stable performance compared to the previous quarter and showing a 9% increase year-on-year. The gross margin reached 24.2%, close to historical highs, attributed to product structure optimization and ongoing cost reductions [2][4][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 215.7 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.4 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 30% increase year-on-year [2][4][8]. - The report projects optimistic growth for 2025, with expected net profits of 12.7 billion yuan, representing an 11.3% increase, and a target price of 21.8 yuan for A-shares and 23.4 HKD for H-shares [2][4][8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2024 is forecasted at 215.7 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8% for 2025, 7.2% for 2026, and 3.7% for 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 11.4 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 12.7 billion yuan in 2025, 14.3 billion yuan in 2026, and 15.2 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 26.5%, 11.3%, 12.7%, and 5.9% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.31 yuan in 2024 to 1.74 yuan in 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 12 in 2024 to 9 in 2027 [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Weichai Power declared a total dividend of 6.27 billion yuan for the year, with a payout ratio of 55%, corresponding to a dividend yield of over 5% [8].