煤炭开采行业周报：险资举牌中国神华港股，重视龙头煤企投资价值-2025-03-30

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins, suggesting a valuable investment opportunity in the sector [7][77] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may experience fluctuations, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [77] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory has decreased, and the decline in port prices has narrowed, indicating a stable supply from major production areas [13][75] - The average daily shipment volume on the Daqin line has decreased by 24,100 tons week-on-week, while the daily number of cars dispatched by the Hohhot Railway Bureau has increased by 4 [13][75] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has decreased by 76,000 tons and 141,000 tons respectively, with inventory changes reflecting a decrease of 92,000 tons and an increase of 1,960,000 tons [13][75] - The port price decline is expected to stabilize, with coal prices likely to show narrow fluctuations in the short term [13][75] Coking Coal - Production has slightly contracted, with the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreasing by 0.21 percentage points to 88.2% [3][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has increased by 53 cars week-on-week, indicating improved import activity [3][76] - The overall supply-demand situation is improving, with coking coal production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory [3][76] Coke - After eleven rounds of price declines, coke prices are stabilizing, supported by raw material coal prices [53][76] - The average daily iron and steel production has increased for five consecutive weeks, leading to a positive outlook for coke demand [53][76] - The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 74.82% [53][76] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are expected to maintain strong performance and high dividends [8][77] - The report highlights the investment value of companies with high cash flow and stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, which has a cash dividend of 44.903 billion yuan and a dividend yield of 6% [4][77]