SINOTRANS(601598) 华创证券·2025-03-31 00:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion, with a gross profit of 5.54 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 19.7 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 32% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33% [1] - The investment income for 2024 is 2.04 billion, down 12% year-on-year, while other income is 2.18 billion, down 11% year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit fell by 31.8% to 724 million [2] - The e-commerce segment reported revenue of 10.5 billion, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million [3] Financial Projections - The projected total operating revenue for 2025 is 118.67 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 4.01 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.55 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Performance - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a 23% upside from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4]