SINOTRANS(601598) 华创证券·2025-03-31 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China National Freight (601598) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.92 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [1] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns by maintaining an annual cash dividend of 0.29 yuan per share [1] - The total operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 105.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [1] - The report highlights a decline in profit margins, with a gross profit margin of 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The operating revenue for 2024 is 105.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The gross profit for 2024 is 5.54 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 5.2% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2024 is 1.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 3.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Freight forwarding segment revenue reached 67.2 billion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 2.25 billion yuan, down 2.2% [2] - The professional logistics segment generated 28 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, but the segment profit decreased by 31.8% [2] - E-commerce logistics revenue was 10.5 billion yuan, down 14.4% year-on-year, with a segment profit of 160 million yuan [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts total operating revenue to reach 118.67 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase to 4.01 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.3% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.55 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10 [4] Market Position and Valuation - The target price for the stock is set at 6.44 yuan, representing a potential upside of 23% from the current price of 5.23 yuan [4] - The report indicates a focus on shareholder returns, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 55.2% for 2024 [8]