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大唐发电(601991):2024年年报点评:盈利能力仍有提升,装机增长空间大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Datang Power Generation [2] Core Insights - The company's profitability has significantly improved, with a notable increase in net profit and cash flow, primarily due to a decrease in coal prices [5][6] - The company has substantial growth potential in installed capacity, with over 30% of its capacity under construction or approved, supporting long-term growth [5][6] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2024 to 2027 are 123,473.63 million, 120,598.42 million, 124,721.10 million, and 127,416.75 million respectively, with a revenue growth rate of 0.86% in 2024, declining to -2.33% in 2025, and then recovering to 3.42% and 2.16% in 2026 and 2027 [5][7] - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for the same period are 4,506.18 million, 5,184.03 million, 5,576.03 million, and 6,212.03 million, with a remarkable profit growth of 229.70% in 2024 [5][7] - Profitability Ratios: The gross margin is projected to improve from 14.87% in 2024 to 15.94% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 3.65% to 4.88% over the same period [5][7] - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 11.70 in 2024 to 8.49 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5][7] Segment Performance - Coal and Hydropower Segments: The coal segment's profit is expected to increase significantly due to lower coal prices, while the hydropower segment also shows growth, contributing to overall profitability [5][6] - Installed Capacity: As of the end of 2024, the company has an operational capacity of 79.11 GW, with 24.74 GW under construction or approved, indicating strong future growth potential [5][6]