Shede Spirits (SH:600702) Ping An Securities·2025-03-31 02:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue dropping to 5.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.3%, and net profit falling to 350 million yuan, down 80.5% [3][7] - The company is focusing on channel health and inventory reduction amid macroeconomic pressures, which has led to a decline in sales across various segments [7][8] - A stock incentive plan has been introduced to boost morale among executives and core employees, with performance targets set for revenue and net profit growth over the next three years [8] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024 revenue: 5.36 billion yuan, 2025 estimated revenue: 5.95 billion yuan, 2026 estimated revenue: 6.57 billion yuan, 2027 estimated revenue: 7.24 billion yuan [6][10] - 2024 net profit: 350 million yuan, 2025 estimated net profit: 708 million yuan, 2026 estimated net profit: 789 million yuan, 2027 estimated net profit: 877 million yuan [6][10] - Profitability Ratios: - Gross margin for 2024 is projected at 65.5%, with a net margin of 6.5% [10] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 5.1% in 2024 to 10.2% by 2027 [10] - Valuation Metrics: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is 55.6, decreasing to 21.9 by 2027 [10] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 2.8 in 2024 to 2.2 in 2027 [10] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core products and improve its market position despite short-term challenges, with expectations for revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025 compared to 2024 [8]