Three Squirrels(300783) 天风证券·2025-03-31 02:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating a potential return of over 20% within six months [6][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 10.62 billion yuan and a net profit of 407.74 million yuan in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 49.30% and 85.51% respectively [1][4]. - The company's strategy of "high-end cost performance" is being validated at the terminal level, and the "D+N" channel synergy is expected to strengthen overall channel performance [4]. Revenue Growth - All product categories have shown growth, with significant increases in revenue for nuts, baked goods, and meat products. The revenue for the company's brands, including Three Squirrels and Little Deer Blue, reached 982.5 million yuan and 79.4 million yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 50.57% and 35.03% [2]. - The company has launched over 1,000 SKUs, with products like buffalo milk layered toast achieving over 10 million yuan in sales within months of launch [2]. Channel Performance - Online revenue reached 7.407 billion yuan in 2024, up 49.60% year-on-year, with Douyin, Tmall, and JD contributing significantly to this growth [3]. - Offline revenue also increased to 3.215 billion yuan, with a notable 80%+ growth in distribution channels [3]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The company improved its gross margin to 24.25% and net margin to 3.84% in 2024, with a significant reduction in management expenses [3]. - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 13.78 billion yuan, 17.27 billion yuan, and 20.83 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 547.56 million yuan, 717.44 million yuan, and 895.70 million yuan [5][4]. Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates projected at 30%, 25%, and 21% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 20X in 2025 to 12X in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [4].