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藏格矿业(000408):2024年年报点评:巨龙铜业投资收益大幅增长,紫金国际拟控股增强矿业协同

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 35.81 CNY per share [5]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue due to falling prices of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, but investment income from its stake in Jilong Copper Industry reached a new high [2][3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 was 3.251 billion CNY, a decrease of 37.79% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.580 billion CNY, down 24.56% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is set to change its controlling shareholder to Zijin International, which is expected to enhance resource development and operational synergy [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 927 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.98%. Net profit for the same quarter was 712 million CNY, up 57.76% year-on-year and 24.71% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average selling prices for potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were approximately 2,115 CNY/ton and 75,200 CNY/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 14.9% and 60.8%, respectively [2]. Investment Income - The investment income from Jilong Copper Industry was 1.928 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year increase of 48.7%. The copper concentrate production for the year was 166,300 tons [2]. - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine expansion is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, with an annual copper production capacity of 300,000 to 350,000 tons [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 3.028 billion CNY, 4.369 billion CNY, and 5.175 billion CNY, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability [4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow by 10% in 2025, following the decline in 2024 [4].