Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-03-31 03:18Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core view is that demand is the main driving force, and the price difference between brands is widening [5]. - Last week, the pulp futures price fluctuated downward, with an increase in open interest and a dominance of short - position increases. The SP2505 main contract dropped 28 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.49%, closing at 5724 yuan/ton. The weekly spot price of domestic softwood pulp decreased, while the price of Shandong Yinxing remained flat at 6500 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Russian Needle dropped 75 yuan to 5700 yuan/ton. The price of hardwood pulp Shandong Jinyu remained flat at 4660 yuan/ton [5]. - Suzano announced a price increase of 20 dollars/ton for eucalyptus hardwood pulp Jinyu in Asia and 60 dollars/ton in Europe and the United States in April 2025. The FOB price of Canadian bleached softwood pulp Lion brand in March 2025 increased by 10 dollars/ton: Lion at 820 dollars/ton and Golden Lion at 840 dollars/ton. In February 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 802,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.91%; the inventory was 746,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. The inventory days were 27 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the same period last year. In February 2025, the total European port inventory decreased by 0.70% compared to January and increased by 24.39% compared to February 2024. In February 2025, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 0.3% year - on - year, the shipments of softwood pulp to China decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the shipments of hardwood pulp to China increased by 9.4% year - on - year [6]. - The pulp price showed a downward trend last week, with the futures main contract reaching a lower low and the price center shifting down. The overall open interest of pulp futures increased, with short - position increases dominant. The 05 main contract reduced positions, while the 07 and 09 contracts increased positions. As April approaches, the main contract is about to change. Based on previous price performances during pulp main contract changes, there is a high probability of a fluctuating trend. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the pulp fundamentals is deadlocked. On the supply side, the FOB price continues to rise, increasing the domestic pulp import cost, deepening the import profit inversion, reducing the domestic willingness to import long - term contract pulp, and enhancing the advantage of domestic enterprises' self - made pulp. On the demand side, the overall output of domestic wood - pulp finished paper is stable. The weekly output of tissue paper and offset paper decreased slightly, while the weekly output of white cardboard and coated paper increased slightly. The weekly price of tissue paper jumbo rolls declined, while the weekly prices of other wood - pulp paper types remained flat. The output on the demand side is stable, but there is some pressure on the price of finished paper. Paper traders' inventories are high, and they are pressing down on the purchase price of finished paper. Paper mills are worried about profits and have low enthusiasm for purchasing high - priced raw materials. The domestic pulp port inventory is continuously decreasing but is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years, and the inventory reduction speed is slow. Meanwhile, the market's concern about the quality of Russian Needle affects its price to run weakly. The basis of Russian Needle remains stable, the basis of Yinxing strengthens, and the price difference between softwood pulp brands widens. Overall, the market trading is still mainly driven by the demand side, the feedback from the supply - side drive is not obvious, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to the pulp port inventory reduction speed and the support effect of the Russian Needle basis on the futures price. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core Viewpoints and Review - Core view: Demand - driven, with a widening price difference between brands [5]. - Market review: Futures price decline, increase in open interest with short - position dominance; changes in spot prices of different pulp types [5]. - Industry performance: Price increases of foreign pulp brands; changes in European pulp consumption, inventory, and world pulp shipments [6]. - Core logic: Downward price trend, changes in open interest and main contract; supply - demand deadlock, with supply - side price increases and demand - side output and price conditions; inventory situation and brand price difference [7]. Weekly Data Review - Futures prices: SP2505, SP2507, and SP2509 all declined, with different decline rates [8]. - FOB prices: The price of softwood pulp (Yinxing) remained flat, while the price of hardwood pulp (Mingxing) increased [8]. - Domestic spot prices: Some softwood pulp prices decreased, and the price of hardwood pulp remained flat [8]. - Domestic finished paper average prices: White cardboard price increased slightly, tissue paper price decreased, and offset paper price increased [8]. - Price differences: The basis of Yinxing strengthened, the monthly spread between 05 - 09 contracts changed, and the softwood - hardwood price difference decreased slightly [9]. - Finished paper output: White cardboard output remained flat, tissue paper and offset paper output decreased slightly [9]. - Finished paper profits: White cardboard and offset paper profits increased, while tissue paper profit decreased significantly [9]. - Inventory: Qingdao port inventory decreased slightly, and Changshu port inventory increased slightly [9].