CSN(600029) 国信证券·2025-03-31 04:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][15][19] Core Views - The company has significantly reduced its losses in 2024, with total revenue reaching 174.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.696 billion yuan, marking a substantial reduction in losses [1][8] - Domestic demand is recovering, with notable improvements in passenger load factors, although revenue levels remain under pressure due to excess supply in the industry [2][10] - The company has improved operational efficiency and benefited from lower fuel prices, leading to a decrease in unit costs and an increase in gross margin [3][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 39.563 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of -3.661 billion yuan, also reflecting reduced losses [1][8] - The total passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) increased by 9.1%, 13.8%, and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, recovering to 106.1%, 106.2%, and 102.3% of 2019 levels [2][10] - The overall passenger load factor improved to 85.40%, up 5.6 percentage points year-on-year [2][10] Cost and Efficiency - The company's operating costs in Q4 2024 were 38.83 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, attributed to improved operational efficiency and lower fuel prices [3][13] - The unit cost per ASK was 0.44 yuan, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, contributing to a gross margin increase of 3.8 percentage points to 1.85% [3][13] Future Outlook - The company plans to introduce 53 new aircraft in 2025, with a total fleet size reaching 917 aircraft by the end of 2024 [3][13] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 3.22 billion yuan, 6.67 billion yuan, and 8.44 billion yuan, respectively [15][17]