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中国石油(601857):抵抗油价波动能力强,油价下跌背景下公司业绩仍再创新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [8][18]. Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience against oil price fluctuations, achieving a record high net profit of 1647 billion for 2024, despite a backdrop of declining oil prices [1]. - The upstream segment has shown significant cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with crude oil production increasing by 0.5% and natural gas sales rising by 4.1% in 2024 [2]. - The refining segment faces challenges due to weak demand for refined oil products, leading to a 50% decline in refining unit profit [3]. - The natural gas sales segment has seen robust performance, with profits reaching 540 billion, a 25% increase year-on-year, attributed to lower import costs [4]. - The company plans capital expenditures of 2758 billion for 2024 and 2622 billion for 2025, with a strong operating cash flow of 4065 billion, resulting in a free cash flow of approximately 1307 billion after capital expenditures [5]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 1698 billion and 1749 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 1800 billion [5]. - The A-shares are expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.7 for 2025, while H-shares are projected at 5.5 [5]. - The dividend yield for A-shares in 2025 is estimated at 5.7%, and for H-shares, it is 9.0% [5]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2,937,981 million, with a slight decline of 2.43% year-on-year [6].