Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for Sinotruk (Hong Kong) with a target price of HK$20.50, down from the previous target price of HK$21.40, indicating an 8.5% downside from the current price of HK$22.40 [1][3]. Core Views - Sinotruk's 2024 net profit is projected at RMB5.86 billion, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase, which is slightly above the report's estimate but below Bloomberg's consensus [1]. - The management anticipates a decline in export sales for 2025, aligning with the report's view that exports will face pressure due to a high base in the Russian market [1]. - The report revises down the earnings forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 2% and 3% respectively, primarily due to lower export volume assumptions and low engine margins [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB85.04 billion in FY23 to RMB95.06 billion in FY24, with a projected growth rate of 11.8% [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB5.32 billion in FY23 to RMB5.86 billion in FY24, representing a 10.2% growth [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be RMB2.14 for FY24, with a year-over-year growth of 10.9% [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 10.9 in FY23 to 9.8 in FY24, indicating a more attractive valuation [2]. Segment Performance - Heavy-duty truck (HDT) sales are projected to grow by 3% in 2025, driven by a 12% increase in China, but offset by a 5% decline in exports [8]. - Light-duty truck (LDT) sales are expected to grow by 5% in 2025, with the segment potentially turning profitable [8]. - Engine sales volume is anticipated to grow by 5% in 2025, with stable segment margins around 14% [8]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholders of Sinotruk include CNHTC with a 51% stake and MAN SE with a 25% stake [4]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 8.5% and a 3-month relative performance of -1.1% [5].
中国重汽：Stay cautious on exports-20250331