[Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 4[Table_StockInfo 月 1 日收盘价（港元）] | 20.1 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 15.33-23.95 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（百万股） | 2761/2761 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万港元） | 55496/55496 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《限制性股票激励落地，坚定长期发展》 | | | 2024.06.26 | | 《重卡龙头，出海尖兵》2024.05.27 市场表现 [Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/汽车与零配件/汽车 证券研究报告 中国重汽（3808）公司年报点评 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_QuoteInfo] 恒生指数对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 4.0 45.3 56.6 相对涨幅（%） 1.9 29.4 39.8 资料来源：海通证券研究所 国内重卡高端化，轻卡减亏 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 分析师:刘一鸣 Tel:(021)2315414 ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·工业工程(HS) 中国重汽（03808.HK） 2024 年报点评：龙头韧性彰显，出海行稳致 远 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 85780 | 95062 | 106856 | 118773 | 130067 | | 同比(%) | 44.15 | 10.82 | 12.41 | 11.15 | 9.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5318 | 5858 | 6837 | 8160 | 8927 | | 同比(%) | 196.01 | 10.16 | 16.71 | 19.34 | 9.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.48 | 2.96 | 3.23 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.63 | 10.56 | 9.05 | 7.58 | 6.93 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary ...

31 Mar 2025 Earnings Summary | (YE 31 Dec) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (RMB mn) | 85,041 | 95,062 | 99,522 | 106,172 | 110,655 | | YoY growth (%) | 43.4 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.2 | | Net profit (RMB mn) | 5,318.1 | 5,858.4 | 6,025.2 | 6,314.8 | 6,567.9 | | EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 1.93 | 2.14 | 2.18 | 2.29 | 2.38 | | YoY growth (%) | 196.0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 4.8 | 4.0 | | Consensus EPS (RMB) | na | 2.23 | 2.52 | 2.84 | 0.00 | | P/E (x) | 10.9 | 9.8 | 9. ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·工业工程(HS) 中国重汽（03808.HK） 2024 年报点评：龙头韧性彰显，出海行稳致 远 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 85780 | 95062 | 106856 | 118773 | 130067 | | 同比(%) | 44.15 | 10.82 | 12.41 | 11.15 | 9.51 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5318 | 5858 | 6837 | 8160 | 8927 | | 同比(%) | 196.01 | 10.16 | 16.71 | 19.34 | 9.40 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.93 | 2.12 | 2.48 | 2.96 | 3.23 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.63 | 10.56 | 9.05 | 7.58 | 6.93 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完 整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依賴該等內 容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 SINOTRUK (HONG KONG) LIMITED 中 國 重 汽（ 香 港 ）有 限 公 司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：03808） 截 至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止年度業績公告 業績 董事會欣然公佈中國重汽（香港）有限公司截至2024年12月31日止年度之綜合業績 及與上年同期之比較數字如下： 綜合損益表 截至2024年12月31日止年度 （除另有說明外，所有金額以人民幣千元計） | | 附註 | 2024 | 2023 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | （經重述） | | 收入 | 4 | 95,061,587 | 85,498,035 | | 銷售成本 | 13 | (80,196,093) | (71,959,543) | | 毛利 | | 14,865,494 | 13,538,492 | | 其他收入及利得 | | 1, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Sinotruk (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 27.60 [4][6] Core Views - Sinotruk is a leading heavy-duty truck manufacturer in China with a 24.9% market share in 2023 [1] - The company benefits from dual growth drivers: domestic demand recovery and strong export performance [1][3] - Sinotruk's export sales accounted for 57.3% of total heavy truck sales in 2023, up from 11.1% in 2020 [3] - The company's revenue grew 43.9% YoY to RMB 85.49 billion in 2023, with net profit surging 217.9% to RMB 5.32 billion [1] Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is in the early stages of recovery, supported by logistics demand and replacement policies [2][4] - Natural gas heavy trucks are gaining popularity due to widening fuel price differentials, with penetration reaching 24.8% in 2023 [27] - The "One Belt, One Road" initiative continues to drive export growth, with Sinotruk leading in overseas sales [3][31] Company Performance - Sinotruk sold 227,000 heavy trucks in 2023 (42.7% domestic, 57.3% export) and 130,000 light trucks [1] - The company's gross margin stood at 16.7% in 2023, with heavy trucks contributing 87.5% of total revenue [1] - Sinotruk maintains a 50% dividend payout ratio, offering an attractive dividend yield of 5-6% [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow 13.0% to RMB 96.59 billion in 2024 and 9.6% to RMB 105.91 billion in 2025 [4][47] - Net profit is expected to increase 14.1% to RMB 6.07 billion in 2024 and another 14.1% to RMB 6.93 billion in 2025 [4][48] - The company is valued at 10x 2024 P/E, in line with industry peers [52] Strategic Advantages - Sinotruk has a strong partnership with MAN and Weichai Power, enhancing its technological capabilities [29][43] - The company has established a comprehensive overseas network, covering over 110 countries and regions [33] - Sinotruk's product portfolio is being upgraded, with new high-end models like SITRAK and Yellow River boosting average selling prices [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a HOLD rating for the company, indicating a potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months [2]. Core Viewpoints - The earnings forecast for 2024E and 2025E has been revised down by 5% and 2% respectively, reflecting a projected ~20% year-on-year earnings decline in the second half of 2024, with recovery expected in 2025 [2]. - The target price has been adjusted to HK$21.4 from HK$19.5, based on a valuation of 4.5x EV/EBITDA, which aligns with the historical average [2]. - The report suggests that the current share price does not yet reflect the downside risks to earnings, particularly following a recent rally [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 85,041 million in FY23A to RMB 91,906 million in FY24E, representing an 8.1% year-on-year growth [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,318.1 million in FY23A to RMB 5,685.1 million in FY24E, reflecting a 6.9% growth [3]. - The P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.9x in FY23A to 10.2x in FY24E, indicating a more attractive valuation [3]. Sales Volume and Revenue Projections - The sales volume for heavy-duty trucks (HDT) is expected to decline by 3.7% in 2024E, with a slight recovery projected in 2025E [6]. - The revenue from the truck segment is forecasted to remain stable, with a slight increase from RMB 92,273 million in 2024E to RMB 92,517 million in 2025E [6]. - The report highlights a significant drop in engine sales volume, projected to decrease by 25.5% in 2024E [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 16.2% in FY23A to 15.0% in FY24E, indicating pressure on profitability [10]. - Operating profit is projected to increase from RMB 6,487 million in FY23A to RMB 7,034 million in FY24E, reflecting an 8.4% growth [8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain stable around 13.6% in FY24E [10]. Gearing and Liquidity - The net gearing ratio is projected to worsen from (44.3%) in FY22A to (47.3%) in FY24E, indicating increased leverage [3]. - The current ratio is expected to remain stable at around 1.2 over the forecast period, suggesting adequate liquidity [12].

Financial Performance - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached RMB 48,823 million, an increase of 18.0% compared to RMB 41,371 million in the same period of 2023[3]. - Gross profit increased to RMB 7,159 million, reflecting a growth of 9.8% from RMB 6,523 million year-on-year[3]. - Profit attributable to equity shareholders rose by 39.7% to RMB 3,294 million, up from RMB 2,358 million in the previous year[3]. - The net profit margin improved to 7.4%, an increase of 17.5% from 6.3% in the previous year[3]. - The company reported a market capitalization of RMB 51,154 million as of June 30, 2024, with 2,760,993,339 shares issued[15]. - The interim dividend for 2024 is set at HKD 0.72 per share, representing a payout ratio of 55.3%[14]. - The company’s revenue primarily comes from heavy truck sales, with major brands including SITRAK, HOWO, and Huanghe[11]. - The total revenue from the heavy truck segment reached RMB 42,513 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.3%[21]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 4,160,303 thousand for the period[126]. - The total income tax expense for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 670,948,000, compared to RMB 661,817,000 for the same period in 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.6%[142]. Sales and Market Performance - The sales volume of heavy trucks increased by 14.8% to 125,017 units, compared to 108,887 units in the same period last year[3]. - The domestic sales of heavy trucks surged by 29.6% to 56,602 units, up from 43,689 units year-on-year[3]. - The sales of gas-powered tractors surged by 278% year-on-year, with market share increasing by 11.75 percentage points[22]. - The sales of new energy heavy trucks grew by 309% year-on-year, with market share rising by 5.6 percentage points, placing the company among the top three in the industry[23]. - The group sold 56,922 light trucks, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.5%[28]. - The domestic market for light trucks saw sales of approximately 970,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%[20]. - The company aims to expand its market presence both domestically and internationally, leveraging its strong manufacturing capabilities[10]. Financial Services and Investments - The financial segment provides various services, including deposit acceptance and commercial financing for vehicle purchases[13]. - The financial segment's revenue, including interest and leasing income, was RMB 751 million, up 4.6% year-on-year[34]. - The revenue from automotive financial services was RMB 272 million, an increase of RMB 88 million or 47.8% year-on-year[37]. - The group established 23 financial service departments, expanding its business coverage in mainland China[37]. - The company is actively managing foreign exchange risks by forming a foreign exchange management team and conducting regular market analysis[57]. Operational Efficiency - The current ratio decreased to 1.1 from 1.2, indicating a decline of 8.3% in liquidity[3]. - The turnover days for trade receivables improved to 76.8 days, an increase of 5.3% from 72.9 days in the previous year[3]. - The company has a complete industrial chain with self-developed and manufactured key components such as engines and gearboxes[10]. - The company has over 500 domestic dealers and more than 1,270 service stations providing after-sales support[23]. Corporate Governance and Social Responsibility - The company is committed to enhancing social value through active participation in public welfare and corporate social responsibility initiatives[50]. - The group achieved a 100% compliance rate for wastewater and waste gas emissions during the review period, with no significant environmental complaints or penalties received[51]. - The company has adopted a diversity policy for its board members to ensure a balanced representation of skills, experience, and perspectives[82]. - The company is committed to improving employee health and safety through regular health checks and occupational hazard assessments[56]. Future Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - The company aims for operating revenue of no less than RMB 94.8 billion for 2024, with a sales profit margin of at least 7.5%[97]. - In the second half of 2024, the company plans to accelerate the introduction of new products, focusing on promoting 13L and 15L gas vehicles to increase domestic market share[58]. - The company expects continued recovery in domestic market demand due to macroeconomic improvements and government policies supporting equipment updates and consumer goods replacement[58]. - The company aims to expand its traditional export markets while breaking into high-end markets with tailored business policies and enhanced service networks[58]. Shareholder Information - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.72 or RMB 0.66 per share for the six months ending June 30, 2024, totaling approximately HKD 1,988 million or RMB 1,822 million[83]. - Major shareholder Shandong Heavy Industry holds 51% of the company's issued shares, while FPFPS holds 25%[91]. - The company has no plans to repurchase or redeem any of its listed securities during the review period[85]. - The company’s board emphasizes the importance of shareholder communication during the annual general meeting held on June 28, 2024[86].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 2.9 billion yuan, up 38.9% year-on-year [1]. - The heavy truck segment saw rapid sales growth, with a market share increase, while profitability slightly declined due to changes in product mix [1][2]. - The light truck segment also experienced significant sales growth, benefiting from increased market share in niche areas [1]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the heavy truck industry, expected to benefit from government policies aimed at phasing out older diesel trucks, which could stimulate sales growth [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 85.78 billion yuan in 2023 to 103.48 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 5.32 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.81 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 8% [2]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 16% over the next few years, with a net profit margin increasing from 6.2% in 2023 to 7.6% in 2026 [2][3]. Market Performance - The heavy truck sales volume for the company reached 12.5 million units in the first half of 2024, a 14.8% increase year-on-year, while light truck sales increased by 14.5% [1]. - The company’s market share in the new energy heavy truck segment has improved significantly, ranking among the top three in the industry [1]. - The financial services segment reported increased revenue but experienced a decline in profitability due to rising costs [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 48.82 billion yuan, up 18.0% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.29 billion yuan, up 38.8% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the forecast [3][10] - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets, particularly in high-end segments, while optimizing its product structure [4][19] Financial Review - The company achieved a total revenue of 48.82 billion yuan in 2024H1, with a year-on-year increase of 18.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.29 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 38.8% [3][10] - The gross profit margin for 2024H1 was 14.7%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the heavy truck business [12] - The operating profit margin for heavy trucks was 6.0%, with a year-on-year decline attributed to increased competition and a higher proportion of low-margin products [15] Heavy Truck Business - Heavy truck revenue reached 42.04 billion yuan in 2024H1, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The company sold 125,000 heavy trucks, up 14.8% year-on-year, outperforming the industry [15][18] - The average selling price (ASP) for heavy trucks was 340,000 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [15] - The company’s market share in the domestic heavy truck segment increased to 18.8%, driven by strong performance in natural gas vehicles [15][18] Other Businesses - Light truck revenue was 5.8 billion yuan in 2024H1, up 32.1% year-on-year, with a sales volume of 57,000 units, reflecting a 14.5% increase [18] - Engine revenue was 3.0 billion yuan, down 2.0% year-on-year, but the operating profit margin improved to 17.7% due to better cost control [18] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts net profits of 6.81 billion yuan for 2024, 7.81 billion yuan for 2025, and 7.88 billion yuan for 2026, with corresponding EPS of 2.47, 2.83, and 2.85 yuan [19]