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中国石油(601857):2024年年报点评:归母净利润增长,盈利韧性强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the benchmark index [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decrease in operating revenue of 2.5% year-on-year, totaling 2,937.98 billion yuan, while achieving a net profit attributable to shareholders of 164.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.0% [1]. - The company has shown resilience in profitability despite a decline in non-recurring losses, which decreased significantly by 173.8 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. - The company is actively expanding its natural gas production and sales, achieving a 4.1% increase in natural gas output, totaling 51,338 billion cubic feet, and a 5.2% increase in sales volume [2]. - The company is undergoing a transformation in its chemical segment, with ethylene production increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating progress in moving towards higher value-added products [3]. - The dividend payout ratio has increased by 2.2 percentage points to 52.2%, with a total cash dividend of 0.47 yuan per share for the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 2,937,981 million yuan and a net profit of 164,676 million yuan, with a projected decline in revenue for 2025 to 2,724,280 million yuan [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.78 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10 [5][10]. Production and Sales - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 1,797 million barrels, marking a 2.2% increase, while crude oil production was 942 million barrels, up 0.5% [2]. - The sales volume of refined products, including gasoline and diesel, saw a decline, with gasoline and diesel sales down by 4.5% and 6.9% respectively [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its chemical production capabilities, with significant projects underway to increase the output of high-value products [3]. - The company is also expanding its market presence in natural gas by developing terminal markets and increasing direct sales to customers [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025 to 143.14 billion yuan, with subsequent growth expected in the following years [5][10]. - The company’s stock is currently priced at 8.08 yuan, with a high dividend yield of 5.8% for A shares and 8.3% for H shares [4][6].