PETROCHINA(SH:601857) Xinda Securities·2025-03-31 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high in operating performance, with a total revenue of CNY 29,379.81 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 1,646.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.02% [1][2] - The upstream oil and gas sector showed steady profit growth, while the downstream refining and sales sector faced overall pressure due to weak domestic demand for refined oil products [4] - The company’s oil and gas equivalent production reached 240 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, with domestic oil and gas equivalent production at 220 million tons, up 2.5% [4] - The company has implemented a market value management approach aimed at enhancing operational quality and shareholder returns, with a dividend payout ratio of 52.2% in 2024, marking a historical high [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of CNY 29,379.81 billion, with a net profit of CNY 1,646.76 billion, and basic earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 0.90, reflecting a 2.00% year-on-year increase [1][6] - The average realized price of crude oil was USD 74.70 per barrel, a decrease of USD 1.90 compared to the previous year [4] - The company’s total operating revenue is projected to decline slightly in the coming years, with estimates of CNY 28,567.54 billion in 2025 and CNY 28,541.85 billion in 2026 [6] Segment Performance - The oil and gas segment remains a significant profit contributor, while the refining and chemical segments are under pressure due to market conditions [4] - The company’s natural gas sales reached a historical high of 2,877.5 billion cubic meters in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [5] - The refining segment processed 190 million tons of crude oil in 2024, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, while the chemical segment saw a 13.6% increase in product volume [5] Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 1,674.22 billion, CNY 1,712.17 billion, and CNY 1,762.71 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.91, CNY 0.94, and CNY 0.96 [4][6] - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trend as a leading player in the domestic oil and gas sector, supported by the implementation of its market value management strategy [4]