POP MART(09992) 申万宏源证券·2025-03-31 07:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leader in the global trendy toy market, driven by a strong brand rather than supply chain advantages. Its revenue and profit growth are attributed to multiple IPs, categories, and regions exceeding expectations [8]. - The IP matrix is expanding, with four IPs expected to generate over 1 billion in revenue in 2024, and significant growth in established and new IPs [8]. - The company's overseas expansion is gaining momentum, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America, with plans to open 100 stores in the year [8]. - The product category expansion continues, with non-blind box products expected to account for 47% of sales in 2024, enhancing the IP's lifecycle and monetization potential [8]. - Membership operations are highlighted, with a significant increase in registered members and store count, indicating strong customer engagement [8]. - The profit forecast has been revised upwards, with expected revenues and net profits for 2025 to 2027 being significantly higher than previous estimates [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 6,301 million, 13,038 million, 21,107 million, 25,929 million, and 29,709 million respectively, with growth rates of 36%, 107%, 62%, 23%, and 15% [7][9]. - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts are 1,184 million, 3,220 million, 5,992 million, 7,820 million, and 8,980 million for the same years, with growth rates of 107%, 172%, 86%, 31%, and 15% [7][9]. - The company’s return on equity is projected to be 15.2%, 29.6%, 35.1%, 31.1%, and 26.1% from 2023 to 2027 [7].