Weichai Power(000338) 西南证券·2025-03-31 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 20.86 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 16.30 CNY [1][13]. Core Insights - Weichai Power has demonstrated a comprehensive improvement in the operational quality of its subsidiaries, leading to enhanced profitability. The company has managed to navigate industry pressures effectively, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit [8][10]. - The heavy truck industry faced a slight decline in sales, yet Weichai Power's various business segments are showing stable upward trends. The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for natural gas heavy trucks due to recent policy changes [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, Weichai Power reported a revenue of 2156.91 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.81%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 114.03 billion CNY, marking a 26.51% increase [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.4%, up by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 6.6%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [8][10]. - The forecast for the next three years indicates a steady growth in revenue and net profit, with expected net profits of 129.98 billion CNY, 150.21 billion CNY, and 169.97 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15]. Business Segment Performance - The revenue from complete vehicles and key components is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated increase of 52.8% in 2025. The intelligent logistics segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate of 5% annually [10][15]. - The natural gas heavy truck segment is anticipated to see increased sales due to favorable policies, with a projected sales volume of 17.8 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.3% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14 for 2025, which is lower than the average PE of 17 for comparable companies, indicating potential undervaluation [13][14]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are projected to be 1.49 CNY, 1.72 CNY, and 1.95 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][15].