CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Ping An Securities·2025-03-31 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) [1] Core Views - The macro consumption environment has impacted operations, but the company continues to strengthen its competitive advantages [10] - Despite a challenging environment, the company has maintained its market position and is expected to recover in the coming years [10] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [5] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 32.03%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points [5] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 7.939 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.51% [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.05 yuan per share, with a total dividend payout of 2.172 billion yuan, maintaining a payout ratio of 50.91% [5] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, sales revenue from duty-free goods was 38.666 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.58% year-on-year, accounting for 68.45% of total revenue [9] - Sales revenue from taxable goods was 17.095 billion yuan, down 23.49% year-on-year [9] - Revenue from Hainan region was 28.892 billion yuan, a decline of 27.13% year-on-year, while Shanghai region revenue was 16.035 billion yuan, down 10.02% year-on-year [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.015 billion yuan in 2025, 5.925 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.582 billion yuan in 2027 [10] - The estimated P/E ratios for the upcoming years are approximately 25.4 for 2025, 21.5 for 2026, and 19.4 for 2027 [10] Competitive Positioning - The company has introduced over 200 well-known international and domestic brands and has strengthened its online and offline collaboration [10] - It has secured operating rights for 10 airport and port duty-free projects, contributing to significant growth in domestic duty-free sales [10]