CGN POWER(003816) 中原证券·2025-03-31 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [33]. Core Views - The company achieved an operating revenue of 86.804 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.814 billion yuan, up 0.83% year-on-year [7][16]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company in 2024 was 0.416 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 1.57% compared to the previous year, while the average market transaction price fell by 3.85% to approximately 0.3869 yuan per kilowatt-hour [8][10]. - The company managed to increase its total power generation to approximately 242.181 billion kilowatt-hours, a growth of 6.08% year-on-year, with significant contributions from its subsidiaries [8][10]. - The company is in a phase of large-scale nuclear power station construction, with a total installed capacity of 43.814 million kilowatts, accounting for 45.02% of the national total [11][13]. - The company plans to increase its cash dividend to 4.797 billion yuan for 2024, raising the dividend payout ratio to 44.36% [14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating revenue of 86.804 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 10.814 billion yuan, reflecting stable growth despite market challenges [7][16]. - The company’s financial expenses decreased by 9.40% year-on-year to 5.133 billion yuan, aided by lower debt financing costs [14]. Market Position and Growth - The company’s nuclear power generation capacity is expected to grow, with new units coming online and ongoing projects in development [10][11]. - The company’s market share in the national on-grid electricity generation reached 54.38% in 2024, highlighting its significant role in the industry [10]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 10.968 billion yuan, 11.688 billion yuan, and 13.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 0.22, 0.23, and 0.26 yuan [15][16]. - The anticipated decline in market electricity prices in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions may impact the company’s average electricity price in 2025, but the overall power generation volume is expected to maintain an upward trend [15].