Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Hai Jiaya Medical (6078 HK), with a target price of HKD 18.00, indicating a potential upside of 30.2% from the current closing price of HKD 13.82 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to changes in the medical insurance payment environment, but long-term growth visibility remains significant. It is anticipated that by 2025, the company will recover with a profit growth rate exceeding 20% as the impact of medical insurance cost control normalizes and new hospital integrations are completed [3][7]. - The report highlights that while the company's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 9%, it falls short of expectations, with a notable decline of 11% in the second half of 2024. The oncology segment remains stable, contributing 44% to revenue, while outpatient services show resilience with a 21% increase in annual revenue [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing expansion through new hospitals and acquisitions, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue growth in the future. The company is also exploring new business avenues in response to the changing medical insurance landscape, including internet hospitals and self-paid services related to innovative drugs [7][8]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward by 16-21% and 21-27%, respectively, reflecting the short-term impact of medical insurance cost control on the company's performance [6][7]. - The updated financial projections for 2025 estimate revenue at RMB 4,987 million, a decrease of 15.8% from previous estimates, with a net profit forecast of RMB 743 million, down 20.6% [6][13].
海吉亚医疗：2024年业绩短期承压，但长期成长能见度依旧显著，维持买入-20250331