Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) CMS·2025-03-31 08:41Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (Maintain) with a target price of 89 CNY and a current stock price of 76.53 CNY [3] Core Views - The company is expected to recover in 2025 due to improved operating conditions following a leadership transition and a resurgence in dining traffic, which will enhance revenue and profitability [1][6] - The company faced external demand pressures in 2024, leading to adjustments in delivery schedules to manage channel inventory, while maintaining stable growth through cost and expense control [6] Financial Data Summary - Total Revenue (CNY million): - 2023: 33,937 - 2024: 32,138 (YoY -5%) - 2025E: 33,278 (YoY +4%) - 2026E: 34,327 (YoY +3%) - 2027E: 35,256 (YoY +3%) [2][13] - Operating Profit (CNY million): - 2023: 5,737 - 2024: 5,843 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 6,504 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 7,040 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 7,551 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (CNY million): - 2023: 4,268 - 2024: 4,345 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 4,830 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 5,224 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 5,598 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Earnings Per Share (CNY): - 2023: 3.13 - 2024: 3.19 - 2025E: 3.54 - 2026E: 3.83 - 2027E: 4.10 [2][14] Key Financial Ratios - PE Ratio: - 2023: 24.5 - 2024: 24.0 - 2025E: 21.6 - 2026E: 20.0 - 2027E: 18.6 [2][14] - PB Ratio: - 2023: 3.8 - 2024: 3.6 - 2025E: 3.4 - 2026E: 3.2 - 2027E: 3.0 [2][14] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 16.1% - 2024: 15.4% - 2025E: 16.1% - 2026E: 16.4% - 2027E: 16.6% [2][14]