ICBC(601398) 银河证券·2025-03-31 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a marginal recovery in performance with improved revenue and net profit growth rates, alongside optimized deposit costs [1][4] - The bank's net interest income showed a positive growth of 4.68% year-on-year in Q4 2024, marking the first quarterly positive growth since Q3 2022 [4] - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.34% at the end of 2024, reflecting a slight decrease [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, ICBC's revenue decreased by 2.52% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.51% [4] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) was 9.88%, down by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The bank's net interest margin (NIM) was 1.42%, a decrease of 19 basis points from the end of 2023, but the decline has narrowed [4] Loan and Deposit Growth - Total loans increased by 8.76% year-on-year, with corporate loans growing by 8.28% and retail loans by 3.51% [4] - Personal loans, including consumption and operating loans, saw significant growth rates of 28.3% and 24.6% respectively [4] - Total deposits grew by 3.9% year-on-year, with personal deposits increasing by 11.93% [4] Non-Interest Income and Wealth Management - Non-interest income decreased by 1.95% year-on-year, with a notable decline in commission income by 8.34% [4] - Wealth management showed steady growth, with retail assets under management (AUM) increasing by 10.28% year-on-year [4] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The NPL ratio was 1.34% at the end of 2024, with a coverage ratio of 214.91% [4] - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio was 14.1%, indicating a solid capital position [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a stable dividend payout ratio of 31.3% for 2024, with projected book value per share (BVPS) of 10.99, 11.77, and 12.57 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][43]