Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to face operational pressure in 2024, with a projected revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.5% year-on-year, but a significant decline in core operating profit by 60.1% to 250 million yuan, and a net profit drop of 87.7% to 55.81 million yuan due to cost leverage effects [1][9]. - The core brand's same-store sales are under pressure, leading to a strategic focus on core brand development by selling off non-core brands [2][12]. - The company is actively adapting to market changes by introducing new store formats and maintaining a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40% [3][24]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%. The net profit for 2024 is projected to be 558.1 million yuan, down 87.7% from the previous year [5][9]. - The core brand, Tai Er, generated revenue of 4.413 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, while the hot pot brand, Song, saw an increase of 11% in revenue to 895 million yuan [2][12]. - The company plans to optimize its store portfolio by closing underperforming locations, with a net closure of 39 stores in 2024 [2][12]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The cost structure shows rigidity, with raw material costs accounting for 35.6% of revenue, employee costs at 28.8%, and usage rights depreciation and rent at 11.7%, leading to a decline in profit margins [3][21]. - The net profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 0.9%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising costs and impairment losses from store closures [3][21]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering the expected net profit to 216 million yuan and 295 million yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 355 million yuan [4][24]. - The company is focusing on a low-risk, light-asset model for new brand incubation, which is expected to contribute to future growth [4][26].
九毛九:024年经营承压,期待关店固本后的业绩回升-20250331