BTG Hotels(SH:600258) Guoxin Securities·2025-03-31 01:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][18]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit performance for 2024 is expected to be relatively stable, with a proposed dividend payout ratio increasing to 50% [9][4]. - The company plans to accelerate its store opening targets, aiming to open 1,500 new hotels in 2025, supported by a strong pipeline of 1,743 stores by the end of 2024 [10][2]. - The RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) decline in Q4 2024 is narrowing, indicating potential stabilization in the future [13][3]. - The company is focusing on improving the quality of its new openings while also enhancing its product offerings, which is expected to lead to marginal improvements in overall operations [17][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 77.51 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.54%, and a net profit of 8.06 billion yuan, an increase of 1.41% [9][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.36 yuan per share, reflecting a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 30.90% in 2023 to 49.85% in 2024 [9][4]. - The company reported a total of 7,002 hotels in operation by the end of 2024, with a focus on increasing the proportion of mid-to-high-end hotels [10][2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue and net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows a gradual increase, with expected net profits of 9.20 billion yuan in 2025, 10.64 billion yuan in 2026, and 12.26 billion yuan in 2027 [17][19]. - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 16x for 2025, 14x for 2026, and 12x for 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the company's valuation [17][19].