中国黄金国际（02099）：期待2025年甲玛矿全年满负荷运行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of $757 million in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 64.69$63 million [1] - The company is expected to operate at full capacity in 2025, leading to significant growth in net income [1][5] - The company anticipates a decrease in gold production from the Changshanhao mine in 2025, while the Jiamar mine is expected to maintain full operational capacity [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of $294 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 15.31$67 million, up 148.07% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The Jiamar mine produced approximately 20,000 tons of copper and 0.74 tons of gold in Q4 2024, with a unit cost of $2.74 per pound, showing a decrease from Q3 [2] - The Changshanhao mine's gold production was 1.14 tons, with a sales volume of 0.92 tons, which was below expectations [3] Cost and Expenses - In Q4 2024, the company's general and administrative expenses increased by$8 million, and research and development expenses rose by $3.4 million, leading to a total expense increase of approximately$2 billion [4] - The increase in costs nearly offset the increase in gross profit for the quarter [4] Future Outlook - The company projects a copper production of 63,000 to 67,000 tons and gold production of 2.15 to 2.3 tons in 2025, with a processing capacity of 34,000 tons per day [2] - The company has adjusted its cost assumptions for the Changshanhao mine for 2025-2026, estimating net income of $268 million and$291 million for those years [5] - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 60.74, reflecting a reduced valuation discount due to improved earnings visibility [5][9]