机构：天风证券 研究员：刘奕町/曾先毅 央企控股的金铜平台，坐拥优质资源 中国黄金国际资源有限公司是中国黄金集团的海外上市旗舰企业，专注于黄金和铜等矿产资源的勘探、 开采和开发。作为中国黄金集团旗下唯一的海外上市平台，公司依托集团强大的资源与技术支持，形成 以甲玛铜金矿和长山壕金矿为核心的业务布局，经营规模和市场地位稳居行业前列。 我们预测2025-2027 年公司归母净利润为3.06/3.62/5.04 亿美元，yoy+388%/+18%/+39%；以美元汇率7.2 折人民币，对应归母净利润为22.0/26.0/36.3 亿元。当前市值（截至2025 年7 月17 日）对应PE 为 11.3/9.6/6.9X。公司主业为黄金&铜开采，我们综合选取金、铜行业可比公司，计算2025 年平均PE 为 15X。参考可比公司平均估值水平，取整给予中国黄金国际2025 年估值15X，对应目标市值330 亿元 （362 亿港币），目标价91.4 港币，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：矿产量不及预期的风险，矿山成本大幅上升的风险，金铜价格大幅波动的风险，测算存在误 差的风险，跨市场选取可比公司的风险。 长山壕矿稳健， ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Gold International with a target price of 91.4 HKD, indicating a potential upside from the current price of 68.45 HKD [6]. Core Views - China Gold International is positioned to benefit from the recovery in gold and copper prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics in the metals market [3][4]. - The company has a robust operational recovery plan, particularly for its major mines, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [2][44]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Gold International Resources Limited is the overseas flagship of China National Gold Group, focusing on the exploration, mining, and development of gold and copper resources [1][12]. - The company operates two major mines: the Changshanhao Gold Mine in Inner Mongolia and the Jiama Copper-Gold Mine in Tibet, which are critical to its production output [12]. Production and Resource Potential - The Changshanhao Mine is expected to contribute approximately 3.4 tons of gold in 2024, with a stable production outlook despite nearing the end of its operational life [2]. - The Jiama Mine has significant growth potential, with plans to increase production capacity by over 50% through a three-phase development strategy [2][44]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the weakening of the US dollar and increasing global demand for gold are key drivers for rising gold prices, with a projected increase of 27.08% in COMEX gold prices for 2024 [3]. - The copper market is expected to experience a tightening supply situation, which will likely push copper prices higher, benefiting the company's copper production [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 306 million, 362 million, and 504 million USD for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting significant growth [5]. - The financial recovery is attributed to the upward trend in gold and copper prices, alongside the resumption of operations at the Jiama Mine [19][20]. Investment Recommendation - Based on comparative analysis with industry peers, the report suggests a target market capitalization of 330 billion RMB for China Gold International, supporting the "Buy" rating [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.74%, down 177 points, closing at 23,970 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.14% with a trading volume of HKD 122.4 billion in the morning session [1] - New weight stocks performed well, with CATL (03750) rising by 6.35%, reaching a new high since its listing after a strategic cooperation agreement with Geely [1] - Hengrui Medicine (01276) surged by 9.8%, hitting a new high after the clinical approval of SHR-2173 injection [2] Group 2 - Television Broadcasts (00511) increased by over 8% as the company deepens its strategic cooperation in the Greater Bay Area, with institutions optimistic about its profit outlook [3] - Fenbi (02469) rose by over 7% following a significant upgrade to its AI exam preparation system, expanding its AI product matrix [4] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) soared by 14%, with a year-to-date increase of 320%, as the company proposed to spin off its rare earth gold business for independent listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [4] Group 3 - Hong Kong Travel (00308) continued to rise by 9%, doubling its stock price this year, driven by market speculation on stablecoin cross-border payment scenarios [5] - Q Technology (01478) increased by over 8%, with sales of mobile camera modules reaching 3.2648 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [6] - Gold stocks fell across the board as spot gold dropped below USD 3,300, with institutions predicting a high volatility trend for gold prices [6]

Market Overview - US President Trump has issued new tariff policy letters to 14 countries, leading to a rebound in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.09% to 24,148.07 points, ending a three-day decline [1] - The total trading volume for the day was HKD 213.29 billion, indicating active market participation [1] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has withdrawn HKD 59.072 billion in liquidity since June 28, tightening liquidity expectations in the short term [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xinyi Solar (00968) led blue-chip gains, rising 5.43% to HKD 2.91, contributing 1.04 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Kuaishou-W (01024) and Chow Tai Fook (01929) also saw significant increases of 5.16% and 4.42%, respectively [2] - However, Orient Overseas International (00316) and China Biologic Products (01177) experienced declines, dragging down the index [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Kuaishou rising over 5% and Meituan and JD.com both increasing over 2% [3] - Stablecoin concept stocks surged, with Jinyong Investment (01328) skyrocketing 533.17% after announcing a partnership with AnchorX [3] - The Macau gaming sector showed strong performance, with total gaming revenue for the first six days of July reaching MOP 4.3 billion, indicating a robust recovery [6] Solar Industry Insights - The solar sector saw strong gains, with New Special Energy (01799) up 12.65% and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) up 10.81% [5] - Recent government meetings emphasized the need to address low-price competition and improve product quality in the solar industry, suggesting potential for supply-side reforms [5] Gaming Sector Developments - Macau's gaming stocks continued to rise, with Wynn Macau (01128) up 6.4% and MGM China (02282) up 3.29% [6] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that Macau's gaming revenue is expected to see double-digit year-on-year growth in July, marking a cyclical turning point for the industry [6] New Consumption Trends - New consumption stocks performed well, with brands like Blukoo (00325) and Cha Ba Dao (02555) seeing significant increases [6][7] - Gold stocks also rebounded, with Tongguan Gold (00340) rising 6.37% [7] Stablecoin Regulatory Developments - Jinyong Investment announced a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore potential collaborations in digital asset management and stablecoin applications [4] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority is consulting the market on regulatory guidelines for stablecoins, with expectations for a limited number of licenses to be issued [4] Logistics Sector Performance - Jitu Express-W (01519) reached a new high, with a reported 23.5% year-on-year increase in package volume for Q2 2025 [9] - The company achieved a total package volume of 139.9 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong growth in the logistics sector [9] AI and Technology Sector Insights - Hongteng Precision (06088) saw an increase of 8.82%, driven by growing demand for AI-related solutions [10] - The company is expected to benefit from its parent group's resources and the increasing demand for AI computing power [10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.78%, gaining 185 points to close at 24,073 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.29% [1] - The trading volume in Hong Kong reached HKD 117.2 billion in the morning session [1] - Stablecoin-related stocks surged, with Guotai Junan International rising by 16%, Multi-Point Smart increasing by 8%, and OSL Group also up by 8% [1] Group 2 - Jinyong Investment experienced a 150% surge due to a strategic partnership with AnchorX to explore stablecoin applications [2] - Kuaishou-W saw a 3% increase, with institutions expecting the company's Q2 performance to meet market expectations [2] - Gold stocks rebounded in the morning session, with Tongguan Gold rising by 6% and China Gold International increasing by 3.82% [2] Group 3 - Huitongda Network rose over 7% after applying for full circulation of H-shares, which is expected to enhance stock liquidity and investment attractiveness [3] Group 4 - Basestone Pharmaceuticals-B increased by over 4% after granting commercialization rights for Sugli to Gentili in Western Europe and the UK [4] Group 5 - GCL-Poly Energy rose over 9%, with the polysilicon segment potentially becoming a breakthrough point for reversing internal competition, and the company is expected to achieve profitability [5] Group 6 - China Rare Earth Holdings rose over 7% after a failed transaction involving the sale of an Australian gold mine, and plans to spin off its business through an introduction [6] Group 7 - Hon Teng Precision rose by 8.8%, driven by strong performance in AI servers and iPhone business, with Foxconn showing steady growth in Q2 [7] Group 8 - Zhaoyan New Drug increased by over 10%, assisting in the approval of the restructuring of human coagulation factor VIIa for Chengdu Tianqing [8] Group 9 - Steel stocks saw a midday rally, with Chongqing Steel rising by 11%, as institutions expect improvements in industry supply and demand [9]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong gold stocks are experiencing a continuous rebound, with Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) rising over 6% [1] - Other stocks such as China Gold International (02099.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Shandong Gold (01787.HK) are also following the upward trend [1]

Market Overview - The US 90-day exemption period is ending this week, leading to ongoing market focus on US tariff negotiations [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.12% at 23,887.83 points, with a total turnover of HKD 193.79 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.25% to 5,229.56 points, indicating mixed performance across indices [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip stocks, rising 3.85% to HKD 18.32, contributing 2.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's June gaming revenue increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] - Other notable blue-chip movements included China Resources Land (01109) up 3.45% and Ideal Automotive (02015) up 2.8% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin concept is gaining traction, with companies like Guotai Junan International (01788) rising 10.77% [3] - The Hong Kong Stablecoin Regulation is set to take effect on August 1, with limited licenses expected to be issued [3] Beverage Sector - Tea beverage stocks surged, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 11.04% amid a competitive delivery market [4] - The delivery battle between Alibaba and Meituan has significantly boosted tea beverage consumption [4] Real Estate Sector - The housing market is under scrutiny, with a focus on stabilizing expectations and activating demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the third quarter will be crucial for policy direction affecting the real estate market [5] Gaming Sector - Gaming stocks continued to rise, with MGM China (02282) up 2.38% and overall positive sentiment in the Macau gaming market [6] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in Macau's July gaming revenue [6] Power Sector - Power stocks saw a general increase, driven by record electricity demand due to high temperatures [7] - The maximum national electricity load reached 14.65 billion kilowatts, marking a significant year-on-year increase [7] Gold Sector - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.96% as gold prices fell below USD 3,310 per ounce [7] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced expectations for US interest rate cuts [7] Notable Stock Movements - H&H International Holdings (01112) issued a profit warning, falling 7.14% [8] - Jihong Co. (02603) saw a significant rise of 11.62%, with projected net profit growth of 97.25% to 108.21% for the first half of 2025 [9] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) reached a new high, reflecting strong growth potential compared to industry peers [10] - FWD Group (01828) debuted on the market, closing up 1.05% with a net fundraising of approximately HKD 29.53 billion [11]

Market Overview - The US stock market was closed on July 4th for Independence Day [1] Hong Kong Stock Market Highlights - Yum China (09987) rose over 3% after announcing the establishment of an innovation fund to convert operational needs into practical applications [2] - H&H International Holdings (01112) fell over 7%, expecting a 45% to 65% decline in net profit for the first half of the year [2] - China Rare Earth Holdings (03788) surged nearly 9% as it plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Health Road (02587) jumped over 18% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on digital health services [2] - Smoore International (06969) increased over 5% with the launch of Glo Hilo in Japan, maintaining high profit margins [2] - Tencent Music (01698) rose nearly 3% as institutions noted that recent acquisition plans would enhance overall content supply [2] - Jihong Co., Ltd. (02603) surged over 7%, with a projected net profit increase of over 55% year-on-year for the first half [2] - Solar stocks collectively declined, with Xinyi Solar (00968) down 4.86%, Fuyao Glass (06865) down 3.88%, New Energy (01799) down 3.19%, and Xinyi Glass (00868) down 2.64% [2] Other Notable Movements - Kuaishou-W (01024) rose over 3% as it plans to launch a live streaming initiative across multiple cities to create a collaborative ecosystem [3] - Gold stocks faced pressure, with Shandong Gold (01787) down 5.09%, China Gold International (02099) down 3.44%, Lingbao Gold (03330) down 2.68%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold (06693) down 2.33% [3] - China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) increased over 3% after the approval of a merger and acquisition restructuring plan, optimizing resources in the shipbuilding industry [3] - Medical device stocks saw a broad increase, with Spring Medical (01858) up 6.36%, Yongsheng Medical (01612) up 7.27%, Xinwei Medical-B (06609) up 3.55%, and Microneuroscience (02172) up 1.12% [3] - Some stablecoin concept stocks rose, with Victory Securities (08540) up 6.9%, Guotai Junan International (01788) up 5.15%, Yika (09923) up 2.59%, and China Everbright Holdings (00165) up 1.96% [3] - SF Express City (09699) rose nearly 7% amid intensified competition in the food delivery sector, with expectations of increased order volume [3] - HSSP International (03626) fell over 20% after being named by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for high stock concentration [3] Strategic Partnerships and New Listings - Shengye (06069) opened nearly 15% higher after forming a strategic partnership with Stand Robot to enhance its robotics industry chain [4] - Beverage stocks opened high, with Cha Bai Dao (02555) up 15%, Nayuki's Tea (02150) up 9.87%, Gu Ming (01364) up 5.77%, Hu Shang Ayi (02589) up 2.99%, and Mixue Group (02097) up 2.92% [4] - FWD Group (01828) had a flat opening on its first day of listing, being a life insurance company under Li Zeqiang's control [4]

Group 1 - Hong Kong gold stocks experienced a decline, with Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) dropping by 9.5% [1] - Tongguan Gold (00340.HK) fell by over 6% [1] - Zhu Feng Gold (01815.HK) decreased by more than 5% [1] Group 2 - Other companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK), China Gold International (02099.HK), and Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818.HK) all saw declines of over 4% [1]