CHALCO(601600) 民生证券·2025-03-31 09:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a record performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion yuan, representing an 85.38% year-on-year increase [3][12]. - The significant increase in profits is largely attributed to the strong performance of the alumina segment, with a substantial rise in both production and pricing [5][20]. - The company's integrated business model and resource security are expected to enhance its valuation amid geopolitical uncertainties [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 12.4 billion yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 11.979 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [3][12]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a net profit of 3.383 billion yuan, marking a 147.96% increase year-on-year and a 69.14% increase quarter-on-quarter [3][12]. 2. Segment Contributions - The alumina segment's pre-tax profit reached 11.685 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.635 billion yuan, while the primary aluminum segment's pre-tax profit was 8.966 billion yuan, down 2.288 billion yuan year-on-year [3][20]. - The company produced 16.87 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in 2024, a 1.2% increase year-on-year, and 7.61 million tons of primary aluminum, a 12.08% increase year-on-year [22][39]. 3. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.461 billion yuan, 17.675 billion yuan, and 19.569 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [6][7]. - The integrated layout of the company is anticipated to provide significant resource security, with alumina reserves of approximately 2.7 billion tons and a self-sufficiency rate that continues to improve [5][39]. 4. Financial Health - The company's balance sheet has improved, with short-term borrowings reduced from 20.7 billion yuan at the end of 2020 to 3.1 billion yuan at the end of 2024 [5][54]. - The asset-liability ratio decreased to 48.1% by the end of 2024, down 5.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a stronger financial position [5][52].