长城汽车（601633）：24年盈利高增，看好国内外双擎发力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares, with target prices set at RMB 39.69 and HKD 21.08 respectively [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and net profit growth in 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 202.2 billion and net profit of RMB 12.7 billion, representing year-on-year increases of 16.73% and 80.76% respectively [7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand offerings, particularly with the launch of new models under the Wei brand and the Tank brand, which are anticipated to drive sales and profitability [3][4]. - The introduction of the second-generation Xiaolong MAX is seen as a pivotal point for the company's transition to new energy vehicles, expected to boost market presence in the mainstream family vehicle segment [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 275.3 billion, RMB 308.2 billion, and RMB 334.5 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 15.3 billion, RMB 18.6 billion, and RMB 20.1 billion [5][13]. - The company anticipates a continued increase in domestic gross margin, which reached 20% in 2024, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher sales proportion of premium models [3]. Market Dynamics - The company is facing structural challenges in gross margin due to changes in product mix and regional sales, with a reported gross margin of 17% in Q4 2024, down 2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Despite a decline in overseas gross margin to 19% in 2024, the company remains optimistic about improving profitability in international markets, particularly in South America and the Middle East [4]. Cost and Efficiency - The company is expected to increase its R&D expenditure by 33% to RMB 12.4 billion in 2025, focusing on smart driving technologies [2]. - Operating efficiency has improved, with a reduction in the expense ratio to 5% in Q4 2024, down 3 percentage points year-on-year [2].