HDPI(600027) 国信证券·2025-03-31 10:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20]. Core Views - The company's revenue decreased by 3.57% year-on-year to 1129.94 billion yuan in 2024, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26.11% to 57.03 billion yuan, driven by lower coal prices reducing fuel costs [7][11]. - The company is experiencing a decline in electricity generation and trading volume, which has impacted revenue, but the net profit growth is attributed to a decrease in coal prices [7][11]. - The company has ongoing projects and asset injections that are expected to enhance future performance, with plans to invest 12 billion yuan in 2025 for power projects and environmental upgrades [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1129.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 57.03 billion yuan, an increase of 26.11% [7][11]. - The average on-grid electricity price was 511.74 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 0.98%, and the total electricity generation was 2226.26 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of 0.52% [7][11]. - The company’s coal price for fuel was 965.16 yuan per ton, down 7.07%, contributing to a reduction in fuel costs to 705.67 billion yuan, down 6.49% [7][11]. Investment Income - Investment income for 2024 was 34.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.89% year-on-year, with significant declines in income from various subsidiaries [2][17]. Capacity and Projects - The company added 150.88 million kilowatts of new installed capacity in 2024, primarily from gas-fired power plants, bringing the total controlled capacity to 5981.86 million kilowatts [3][17]. - There are ongoing construction projects totaling 932.14 million kilowatts, with plans for further investments to drive future growth [3][19]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin improved to 8.78%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points, while the net margin rose to 6.05%, up 1.95 percentage points [11][15]. - Return on equity (ROE) increased to 11.66%, reflecting improved profitability [15]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 63.9 billion yuan, 66.1 billion yuan, and 69.4 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.62, 0.65, and 0.68 yuan [4][20]. - The reasonable market value is estimated between 639 billion yuan and 703 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 14%-25% from the current stock price [4][20].