GAC GROUP(601238) 东吴证券·2025-03-31 10:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for GAC Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with significant improvements in sales and profitability in Q4 2024 compared to previous quarters [8] - GAC Group is establishing a project company in collaboration with Huawei, aiming to create a new luxury smart electric vehicle brand [8] - Due to increased industry competition, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards, but the company is expected to enjoy a higher valuation due to ongoing reforms [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 129,706 million yuan, with a projected decline of 16.90% in 2024, followed by a recovery to 158,421 million yuan in 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 4,428.90 million yuan, with a significant projected decline of 81.40% in 2024, but a strong recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2024 is projected at 0.08 yuan, with a forecasted increase to 0.34 yuan in 2025 and 0.46 yuan in 2026 [1] Sales and Profitability Insights - In Q4 2024, GAC Group's revenue was 33.04 billion yuan, showing a 5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 16% increase year-on-year [8] - The wholesale sales of GAC's self-owned brands improved significantly, with GAC Passenger Cars and GAC Aion achieving year-on-year increases of 24.4% and 14.8%, respectively [8] - The gross profit margin for Q4 2024 was 5.1%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to previous quarters [8] Investment and Collaboration Developments - GAC Group announced the establishment of a GH project company with a registered capital of 1.5 billion yuan, focusing on deep collaboration with Huawei in product development and marketing strategies [8] - The partnership aims to leverage both companies' strengths to create a new automotive brand based on advanced technology [8] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for GAC Group are 105.12 for 2024, decreasing to 24.81 in 2025, and further down to 15.55 by 2027 [1] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve from 0.76% in 2024 to 2.81% by 2027 [9]