CHIFENG GOLD(SH:600988) China Post Securities·2025-03-31 10:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [10][16]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high performance in 2024, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.764 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 119%. Revenue reached 9.026 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, and free cash flow surged by 279% to 1.749 billion yuan [3][10]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from rising gold prices, with projected gold production for 2025 estimated at 16.70 tons, alongside significant increases in other mineral outputs [6][10]. - Cost control measures have begun to show results, with the unit sales cost of gold decreasing to 278.08 yuan/g, a slight reduction from 280.20 yuan/g in 2023, indicating effective operational efficiency improvements [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is 21.64 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.5 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 36 billion yuan. The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 47.3% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.22 [2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.764 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 119%. The EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 4.204 billion yuan [12][15]. Production Capacity - The company successfully increased its gold production to 15.16 tons in 2024, a 5.6% increase year-on-year. Domestic mines contributed 3.91 tons, while overseas mines contributed 11.25 tons [4][6]. Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control strategies that have led to a decrease in the unit sales cost of gold. This was achieved through technological innovations and supply chain management improvements [7][9]. Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 2.874 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 62.89% for 2025, 16.65% for 2026, and 15.84% for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14.08, 12.07, and 10.42 respectively [10][12].