证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 10 19 年 月 日 有色金属 关税扰动引发金银价格波动，长期牛市格局不改 贵金属：关税扰动引发金银价格波动，长期牛市格局不改。美国两党因对《平价医疗法案》 中的保费税收抵免条款存在分歧，导致美国国会参议院 9 月 30 日之前未能在政府资金耗尽 前通过新的临时拨款法案，美国政府时隔 7 年再次停摆。此事件使得美国信誉受到了新的损 害。10 月 11 日，特朗普宣布将于 11 月 1 日对中国加征 100%关税，引发市场对中美关税 战升级的担忧，利好黄金避险需求。由意外事件所引发的黄金价格快速上涨往往会伴随事件 的反转引发回调风险，但中长期在通胀压力上行与全球流动性宽松背景下，贵金属牛市格局 不改，建议重视贵金属战略配置机遇。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达资源、万国黄金集团、中 金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：矿端干扰支撑铜价，宏观不确定性或造成短期扰动。①宏观：中美贸 易战短期或引发铜价震荡，宏观不确定性提升；②库存端：周内全球铜库存环比增加 3.02 万 吨，其中中国库存增加 2.57 万吨，LM ...

[Table_Author] | 分析师 | 邱祖学 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100521120001 | | | 邮箱： | qiuzuxue@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张弋清 | | 执业证书： S0100523100001 | | | 邮箱： | zhangyiqing@glms.com.cn | 相关研究 有色金属周报 20251019 关税不确定性扰动持续，避险推动金银续创新高 2025 年 10 月 19 日 ➢ 本周（10/13-10/17）上证综指下跌 1.67%，沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，SW 有 色指数下降 3.07%，贵金属 COMEX 黄金+5.76%，COMEX 白银+6.55%。工业金属 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡价格分别变动 0.78%，-1.81%，-2.31%，-1.10%，- 0.46%，-2.01%，工业金属库存 LME 铝、铜、锌、铅、镍、锡分别变动-2.92%、- 1.52%、+1.47%、+5.65%、+3.48%、+14.68%。 ➢ 工业金属：关税引发短期波动，铜价高位震荡，美国宽松预期叠加供给扰动频 ...

"2025年以来，美元信用的加速衰退成为此次金属价格上涨的核心驱动因素，推动了有色金属价格的强 势反弹。"分析师如是说道。 行情升温，市场加温 2025年以来，一场席卷全球的大宗商品"热浪"正在迅速升温。金价突破历史高点、伦铜叩响万美元大 关、白银补涨势能释放，有色金属在资本市场的存在感急剧抬升。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 在美联储降息周期与外部不确定性双重因素的作用下，2025年黄金及有色金属板块的表现引人瞩目。 10月15日，纽约商品交易所2025年12月黄金期货价格突破每盎司4200美元，创下历史新高，年内涨幅已 超过50%。黄金的屡创新高不仅推动了相关企业盈利显著提升，也进一步确认了市场对其避险属性的强 烈需求。 然而，其他有色金属板块表现却有所分化。工业金属受制于关税政策及全球经济预期，价格波动加剧， 但整体盈利保持稳定。能源金属则虽未完全摆脱下行通道，但价格降幅已明显收窄，企业压力缓解，盈 利质量有所改善，显示出走出底部的潜力。 在国庆黄金周后，二级市场迎来有色金属板块的强势上涨，黄金、铜、稀土等核心品种表现突出，相关 企业股价普遍走强。 业内 ...

Group 1 - International silver prices have surged to a 45-year high due to a historical "short squeeze," which has also driven spot gold prices to new highs [1] - From early September to October 10, London gold prices increased significantly by $507.25 per ounce, raising concerns about potential price corrections after such a sharp rise [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that a client was restricted from opening new positions in silver futures for one month due to exceeding self-trading limits [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has warned members to enhance risk awareness and prepare for market volatility due to various destabilizing factors affecting international precious metal prices [1] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and engage in rational investment practices amid the current market conditions [1] Group 3 - Gold stocks experienced a decline after an initial surge, with notable drops in companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co. (down 3.73%) and Zhenfeng Gold (down 3.39%) [2] - As of the report, Shandong Gold was trading at 38.1 HKD, reflecting a decrease of 1.5% [2]

证券之星消息，10月17日贵金属板块较上一交易日上涨1.35%，湖南白银领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3839.76，下跌1.95%。深证成指报收于12688.94，下跌3.04%。贵金属板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002716 | 湖南白银 | 8.04 | 4.28% | 338.55万 | | 26.90 Z | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 33.26 | 3.65% | 51.68万 | | 17.39亿 | | 300139 | 晓程科技 | 28.78 | 3.01% | 61.76万 | | 18.03亿 | | 600489 | 中全黄金 | 24.96 | 2.21% | 125.47万 | | 31.40亿 | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 40.51 | 1.61% | 89.28万 | | 36.53亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 14.65 | 1.38% | 81.41万 | | 11.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - Silver prices continue to reach new highs, with international gold prices surpassing $4,300 [2]. - As of October 16, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 3.35% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.83 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 industries [3][13]. - The precious metals sector has risen by 6.04%, while the industrial metals sector has increased by 3.58% during the same period [18]. Market Review - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX gold price closed at $4,344.30 per ounce, up $828.2 since early September, while the COMEX silver price reached $53.43 per ounce, an increase of $12.68 [6][35]. - The LME copper price stood at $10,620 per ton, with other industrial metals like aluminum at $2,796 per ton and nickel at $15,230 per ton [25][60]. - The rare earth price index was recorded at 204.65, down 22.28 from early September, indicating a need for caution regarding external risk sentiment [42][61]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on rare earth-related technologies to safeguard the global supply chain and address illegal acquisition issues [50]. - The World Gold Council noted that overall gold holdings remain low, suggesting potential for future price increases despite current market concerns [50]. Company Announcements - Shenghe Resources expects a net profit increase of 697% to 783% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions for rare earth products [51][52]. - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit increase of 273% to 287% for the same period, reflecting strong market demand and effective management strategies [53][54]. - Shandong Gold forecasts a net profit increase of 84% to 99% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899), Xinyi Silver (000426), and Chifeng Jilong Gold (600988) in the precious metals sector [60][63]. - For industrial metals, companies like Western Mining (601168) and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) are recommended [60][63]. - In the rare earth sector, attention is drawn to Xiamen Tungsten (600549) and Northern Rare Earth (600111) [62][63].

有色ETF基金（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为74.03%，近一个月回报为12.76%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 10月17日，有色ETF基金（159880）开盘涨0.63%，报1.754元。有色ETF基金（159880）重仓股方面， 紫金矿业开盘涨2.13%，洛阳钼业涨0.19%，北方稀土涨0.02%，中国铝业涨1.40%，山东黄金涨3.03%， 华友钴业涨0.26%，中金黄金涨3.28%，赣锋锂业涨0.06%，赤峰黄金涨4.08%，云铝股份涨1.59%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional metal resources are becoming a new lifeline amid the technological wave and energy transition, with challenges in supply for non-ferrous metals and emerging demand potentially marking a long-term turning point for the sector [2]. Group 1: Tin Market Insights - Minmetals Securities is optimistic about tin prices, forecasting an average annual growth rate of 44.5% in tin consumption for AI servers from 2025 to 2030, driven by significantly higher tin usage compared to traditional servers [5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that the precious metals sector is likely to continue its recovery, with current valuations at the lower end of historical averages. They recommend focusing on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and others, while noting that the gold-silver ratio is currently high and may converge in the future [6]. Group 3: Copper Investment Opportunities - Guolian Minsheng highlights long-term supply constraints in copper due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, which, combined with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, could catalyze a new upward cycle in copper prices. Recommended companies include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [7]. Group 4: Cobalt Market Dynamics - CITIC Construction emphasizes the strategic opportunity in cobalt, noting that new export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo will reduce cobalt exports by over 100,000 tons in the next two years, leading to an estimated market shortage of about 30,000 tons in 2024 [8]. Group 5: Overall Non-Ferrous Metals Investment Space - HSBC Jintrust Fund indicates that there remains investment space in the non-ferrous metals sector, primarily due to further expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could drive prices up. The current valuation of the non-ferrous sector in Hong Kong is seen as advantageous compared to A-shares [9].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional metal resources are becoming a new lifeline amid the technological wave and energy transition, with challenges in supply for non-ferrous metals and potential long-term turning points in the sector [1] Group 1: Tin Market Insights - AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, leading to an increase in tin demand, with an expected annual growth rate of 44.5% in global tin consumption from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Limited new supply capacity for tin in the medium to long term, combined with growth in emerging fields like AI and robotics, as well as steady growth in electric vehicles and photovoltaics, supports a bullish long-term outlook for tin prices [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The precious metals sector is currently at the lower end of historical valuation, indicating potential for sustained recovery, with recommendations to focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and others [3] - The gold-silver ratio is currently high and is expected to converge, suggesting a focus on silver investments [3] - Future investments in power grids and growth in AI data centers, along with relatively inelastic copper supply, are likely to elevate copper price levels [3] Group 3: Copper Investment Opportunities - Global copper supply is expected to face long-term constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, which may limit supply growth [4] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could catalyze a new upward cycle in copper prices, making the copper sector an attractive investment opportunity [4] - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [4] Group 4: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The implementation of export quotas for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to reduce exports by over 100,000 tons in the next two years, leading to an estimated market shortage of about 30,000 tons in 2024 [5] - The tightening supply in the cobalt market is likely to maintain high price levels, with potential for further increases [5] Group 5: Overall Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Despite market reactions, there remains investment space in the non-ferrous metals sector, primarily driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could boost prices [6] - Precious and industrial metals are sensitive to global interest rate environments, indicating potential for price increases [6] - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector in Hong Kong shows an advantage over A-shares [6]

Core Insights - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 3.04% on October 16, with Western Gold leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3916.23, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13086.41, down 0.25% [1] Precious Metals Sector Performance - Hunan Silver (002716) closed at 7.71, up 1.58% with a trading volume of 2.8426 million shares and a turnover of 22.26 million yuan [1] - Western Gold (601069) led the decline, closing at 32.09, down 6.20% with a trading volume of 406,800 shares and a turnover of 1.331 billion yuan [2] - Shandong Gold (600547) closed at 39.87, down 4.39% with a trading volume of 737,100 shares and a turnover of 3.001 billion yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The precious metals sector saw a net outflow of 1.199 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 878 million yuan [2][3] - Major stocks like Hunan Gold (002155) and Western Gold (601069) experienced significant net outflows of 1.61 billion yuan and 1.72 billion yuan respectively from institutional investors [3]