Fuling Zhacai(SZ:002507) Tianfeng Securities·2025-03-31 10:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to face slight pressure in Q4 2024, with projected revenues and net profits of 2.387 billion and 799 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of 2.56% and 3.29% [1]. - The company aims for an 8% revenue growth target for 2025, with a gross margin target of 52%, indicating a slight improvement from the previous year [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 485 million yuan, which constitutes 60.63% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from various products in 2024 is projected as follows: pickled mustard greens at 2.044 billion yuan (down 1.50%), radishes at 460 million yuan (down 24.44%), pickled vegetables at 2.30 billion yuan (up 2.20%), and others at 620 million yuan (down 26.00%) [1]. - The average revenue per distributor increased by 19.89% to 905,300 yuan per distributor, despite a net decrease of 607 distributors to 2,632 [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 are expected to increase by 0.27 and decrease by 0.25 percentage points to 50.99% and 33.49% respectively [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.578 billion, 2.770 billion, and 2.973 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 7%, and 7% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 871.7 million, 940.43 million, and 1.01362 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 8% [3]. - The report provides a detailed financial summary, including EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) projections for the coming years [4][11].